Recap: After some serious long unwinding early in the week (see post) - the Bears kept the index below the Fib 76x (EOD chart) and in consolidation mode. The price stayed above the 34 EMA and below the 5 EMA as marked last weekend on EOD. Currently the Bulls are attempting a comeback using the 13 SMA on the EOM as the base. A look at the March candle's 'low' on the Ichimoku Study of last weekend (post here) would lend credence to this point.
|Nifty - End of Month Chart - 02 M arch 2012|
Nifty - End of Month Chart (EOM): One hoped for the 5 EMA cross above the 13 SMA to happen as the March candle appeared. This was not to be. Ringing in the long term Bull times is kept for another day then. The Bulls would like to continue the up move from where they are and the Bears would like to keep it below 5484 - the Wall for this month..
|Nifty - End of Week Chart - 24 Feb 2012|
Nifty - End of Week Chart (EOW): The resistance line on the STS indicator shown last week, is not yet breached. Bulls have kept well above our 13 month resistance line (black) and 34 EMA.
|Nifty - End of Day - 2 March 2012|
Nifty - End of Day Chart (EOD): The Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA defined the action last week. Bulls seek to get above the 5 EMA, Blue line and the Fib76x to regain some momentum. Notice that our harbinger of long term Bullishness - the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross is still good.
Looking Forward: Bulls look to make a beeline for the Wall - 5484 and crack it. The time for that action may depend on how much more bear pressure the 34 EMA over 200 DMA cross can take, while still intact. Last week's lows have some solid pedigree. Consolidation should continue until our range on the EOD gives up on either side.