Monday, November 18, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Break Point - Week 3 of November 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 14 Nov'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 again as bears claim honors for the second  week of the month too.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close the week a shade below the key support - 34 EMA on the EOD #D1.
  • 5 EMA on EOW #W1, which was support earlier, became resistance last week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bears take it all the way to the 50 SMA before closing the week around the 34 EMA #D1.
Indicators:
  • STS remains over bought - resistance of the previous weeks is now support #W2.
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls struggle to hold the 34 EMA on EOD #D1 - Bears fail at the 50 SMA #D1.




Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 34 EMA continues as last major support the Bulls would want to remain above - Bears have plumbed it up to the 50 SMA #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Above the 5 EMA on the EOW, #W1 i.e. 6114, Bulls have momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA are crossed bearishly #D1.
  • STS resistance line becomes a strong support on the way down #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls look to stay above the critical 34 EMA #D1 - Bears seek life below the 50 SMA on the Day chart #D1.