Monday, February 10, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls back against the Wall - Week 2 of February 2014.





Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 07 Feb'14





Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 07 Feb'14




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 07 Feb'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • December & January candles formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
  • The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern and the resultant gains for the Bears.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index breaks below the February Wall (i.e. 6076 - our support) early in the week - Bulls however defend 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' ) #W1 to close the week just below the Wall.
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA makes a Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • STS falls to touch the Support line for Bulls #W2. 



Wrap:
Bears dominate the short and medium term charts during the week - Bulls regain the short term but fail to make it over the wall (6076) by week close.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 fails to materialize, if February closes above January.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6188), is again resistance for the Index, while 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' ) #W1 and 200 SMA #D1 are the current supports.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA giving way as the two  SMAs start to converge #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls as does the MACD Histogram ticking up #W2.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the 13 SMA #W1 - Bears next need to get below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.