Monday, August 4, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears below the wall - Week 1 of August 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 01 Aug'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Last week's Bullish Three Inside Up, formed by a slender 10 point margin fails to deliver #W1.
  • July Month candle is a High Wave #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears defend the Day Channel Top #D1 and slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1. Bulls keep it above the 50 SMA #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to cross bearishly #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD divergence with Price for the 3rd consecutive wave gives Bears some honey, MACD moves below its MA #D2. 
  • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

Wrap:
Bulls lose control of the short term screen after index keeps below the August Wall 7721 (Study), while Bears further keep it below the August Monthly Pivot 7667 #D1.





Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • July monthly candle is a High Wave  (Study links herehere or elsewhere), and its now active #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support near the 13 SMA on the EOW (7517) #W1, while Index  faces resistance at the Month Pivot 7667 #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bearishly if index closes below 7767 in the next trading session #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD divergence to Price works for Bears, while the MACD staying above its MA helps Bull cause #D2.
  • STS keeping in the overbought is good for the Bulls #W1.


Wrap:
Bulls look to defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get above the 5 EMA on the EOW 7628 #W1Bears look to keep below the August Pivot 7667 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.