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Sunday, December 25, 2011

Nifty: Week ending - 23rd December 2011

Recap:  We anticipated a change of trend as mentioned in the last post. The combination of an aborted Candle Pattern and channel bottom approaching, culminated in a huge gap up mid week. This was followed by a consolidation above the blue line - finishing the week with equal credit to Bulls and Bears despite a 1+% gain for the week.


Nifty - End of Day Chart - 23 12 2011
Nifty End of Day Chart:  The price moved in our range between the two Fibonacci levels.  staying above the 5 EMA and the blue line we would see the Nifty attempt the upper Fib 61x. Being the settlement week, one expects some wild moves too...


Nifty - End of Week Chart - 23 12 2011
Nifty End of Week ChartWeek candle for the first time in a long while stayed firmly below the 200 DMA. Continuation of such behavior is a recipe for a big crack to the  4200 level. The silver lining is the indicator shown just about staying above the support/resistance line.


Nifty - End of Month Chart - 23 12 2011


Nifty End of Month ChartContinues to be in Bear grip below the 4750 line - throwback to the green channel bottom line - is still a possibility.


Looking Forward:   Staying below last week's high or the 200 Week DMA - one sees the week going deeper into the red .. a quick move early in the week above the 4750 level followed by a dash to the Fib61x level on the Day Chart would be the script the Bulls would look to enforce.

S&P 500 - EOW Analysis - Week starting 19 Dec 2011

S&P - EOW Analysis - Week starting 19 Dec 2011

The Channel made by the weekly candles of the SP500 - one can see that the downward channel is under pressure for some weeks now - but just about holding without a breach of the channel top line - coming week could be a decider....