Learning from the Past Week:
The Nifty stayed above the Fib61x on the EOD, and the 34 EMA crossed bearishly below the 200 DMA.
Both the above were studied by us last week, in 'Looking Forward' (click)
We had also smelled 'consolidation' in the air - our senses were accurate in that too.
Where after the consolidation? Up or Down?
Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 25 May, 2012.|
Nifty EOM depicts the bearish 'Three Inside Down' and aftermath, in the last 4 candles (click)
The fourth candle shows us the real take for the Bears.
The S&P 500, also displayed the very same pattern (click), The Nifty is one candle ahead in the fall.
Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 25 May, 2012.|
Support on the 200 DMA is repeated last week.
After 4 red weeks we have a green week - Dawn?
The long tail of this week's candle, indicates Bull resilience.
Channel Median contains the close.
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 25 May, 2012.|
The 34 EMA/200 DMA cross is shown in the first circle - also seen is the 50 EMA.
We shall replace the 200 DMA and 50 EMA with SMAs for simplicity, from next week.
With 200 SMA at 5072 and 50 SMA at 5154 on Friday last - Current Golden Cross can continue or we have a Death's cross, if these MAs close the 80 point gap, and cross each other.
The second circle shows the consolidation on the last 5 candles (1 week), above the Fib 61x.
The Bullish cross of the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA, can happen on Monday with a close above 4909.
The MACD histogram has finally peeked above the zero line as seen in the third circle.
Looking Forward into the next Week:
Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOD - the Bulls can take the Index up to the 200 DMA before settlement.
Falling below the Fib 61x on EOD screen or the 200 DMA on EOW screen - resumes the down trend.
Neither of the above means, more consolidation.
Bulls are current favorites.
Weekend updates shall be up.