Learning from the Past Week:
Above the 5 EMA (EOD), we said the Bulls as favorites, could move the Index to the 200 DMA - they did move it up, and stopped about 50 points shy of that mark.
Below the 5 EMA, the bears tried taking the Index below our lower mark, the Fibonacci 61.8 (EOD) - they also fell short by about 50 points..
That left us with the third option - more consolidation - and that was last week's flavor.
How about next week?
Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 01 June, 2012.|
The Index closed last month with a red candle as befitting the 'Three Inside Down' we studied (click).
Its below all the short term MAs that we track.
Bears hold the roost - momentum however is missing.
Notice the highlight on the CCI Indicator.
Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 01 June, 2012.|
The last two candles show us a Bearish Engulfing.
We studied this in the previous post - along with its possible successor the Three outside Down.
Support on the 200 SMA and DMA continues as does the middle channel.
The STS Indicator shows us that its on a strong support.
Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOD Chart:
|CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 01 June, 2012.|
The first pink circle shows us the continued consolidation of the Index, after its last bottom.
The MACD Histogram is in plus territory,
The gap between the 200 SMA and 50 SMA is now 40 odd points vis-à-vis 80 odd points last Friday.
5 SMA / 13 SMA cross has happened again - Bearish now.
Looking Forward into the next week:
On the EOW - the Bearish candle patterns studied and also the strong support for the Bulls are notable.
The Fib61x on the EOD, remains between the Bears and their honey as does the position of the 50 and 200 SMA.
The 34 EMA (EOD) on the upside and the 200 EMA (EOW) on the downside keeps the Nifty locked in for now.
Bears are the current favorites.
Updates at weekend.