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Saturday, June 16, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 June to 15 June 01 2012 - Bulls run up to channel top..



Learning from the Past Week:
Bulls surged ahead last week - bouncing off the Middle channel line.
The confluence of support we identified on the EOD,  the week before last - was the take off point for bulls (click).
Butting into the Channel top on the EOW - the Bulls need a strong push in the week to come.





S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 15 June, 2012. 

The 5 EMA stopped the Bulls last week.
This Screen remains with the Bulls.
If the June Candle remains green then one sees a 'Bullish Harami' in place - and the next Bull charge?





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 15 June, 2012.

The EOW Channel top stopped the Bulls last Week.
Staying well above the MVWAP 34 - Bulls almost made a channel break out.
The new EOW channel above - is the old EOD channel.
Failure to break above the Channel would mean continuation of the steep fall shown in the chart.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:   
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  15 June, 2012.

The new Day channel formed due to the recent price action is the fastest one in recent times.
Closing above the MVWAP 34 - one sees the Bulls stopped by the white EOW channel top line.
Staying within the yellow channel - Bulls could breakout big.
Bears would push for a re-test of the Blue Monthly Channel line.




Looking Forward into the next week:
The 5 EMA on the EOM chart and the Channel top on the EOW are formidable resistances.
Bull run on pause until they are cleared.
potential Bullish Harami on the EOM needs to be watched.

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 11 June to 15 June, 2012 - The Long Term and other Terms



Learning from the Past Week:
Our last weekend study looked at the Death's Cross on the EOD and the Bullish 'Three Outside Up' on the EOW. click and click.
We got both.
Death's Cross is long term in nature.
Three Outside Up is a more immediate, medium term in nature. 
The net effect of these two signals would play out in the weeks to come.





Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:   
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 15 June, 2012. 

The Up-move of last week, brings the Month's candle's close above the 5 EMA and 34 EMA.
Were it not for the more popular Death Cross (EOD) - one would have called this screen Bullish.
As such, one now expects to see the 5 EMA cross bullishly above the 13 SMA - can happen this month above 5272.
We now look at the section marked 'EOW' and zoom into that price action below...




Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:    
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The circle on the chart shows us the classic ' Three Outside Up' - We studied it in 'EOW' last week (click).
We also identified the support on the STS indicator - the week before.
The sum of the above would be a smile on the Bull's face, in the Medium Term.
The 13 SMA has crossed Bearishly below the 34 EMA.
We now take out the section marked 'EOD' to analyze as below...





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 15 June, 2012.

The simplified EOD chart shows us that the 'Death Cross'  - 50 SMA going below the 200 SMA - is done.
While the long term Bull may stay away as a consequence, the short term Bulls had no reason to do so at the present stage.
The MACD is ticking into the plus.




Looking Forward into the Next Week:
The overhang of a Death Cross would be felt on the Index in due time.
Meanwhile the Bullish Pattern on the EOW should play out.
5272 would be a achievement for the Bulls before the month close.
So one sees that the Long Term Bear and the Medium / Short Term Bulls would slug it out next week.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 June to 15 June, 2012 - Freed from Flat Kumo effect..





.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun sen cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal (K)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)




         DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:   
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 08 June, 2012

Learning from the Past Week:
As anticipated in our weekend study - the Index pulled out of the downward spiral (click).
Freed from the gravitational pull of the Flat Kumo (click) - it has moved up into Bull zone.
The cross of the Tenkan Sen is seen as a precursor to trend change. 1


The Oscillator continues to tick down. 2


Looking Forward into the next week:
Keeping above the Tenkan Sen the Index would aim for recent Highs.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 11 June to 15 June 2012 - Eyeing the Kumo




.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Flat Kumo: Bullish Signal (Ko)
The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)
Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C) 
Chikou Span Cross: Weak  Bullish  Signal (C) 
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:    
The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 15 June, 2012.  


Learning from the Past Week:
After getting back into the Pink of Health (click) the Bulls are at the Kumo.
Earlier they made a Bullish Kijun Sen Cross and closed above the MVWAP 34, as anticipated in the last line of our weekend study (click). 3
The Oscillator has started inching up. 4

The Kumo as one can see from previous candles is strong resistance.




Looking forward into the next week:
If the index cannot effectively penetrate the cloud (Kumo) - it would be more consolidation or a drop.