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Saturday, June 23, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 June to 22 June 01 2012 - Bears do it sideways..



Learning from the Past Week:
We had concluded last week's study, noting that the Bull Run was on pause, until the EOW's channel resistance and the 5 EMA on the EOM are cleared.
Last week's red candle, while closing above the EOW channel - did  not make it past he EOM chart's 5 EMA.
Bears therefore have put up a strong fight last week.
Lets see what they will do next...




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 22 June, 2012

We saw the Blue middle line of our EOM channel holding the Index (click) last month - and so it did.
Below the 5 EMA the current close of the Month's candle is weak.
Overall however the Bulls are in command of this screen.
The developing Bullish Harami of the last two candles above, is still on...





S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 22 June, 2012.

A clear pop above the channel top shows the Bull resolve of last week.
Close above the 5 EMA and the MVWAP 34 - add to above.
RSI looks like it can go below its MA - Bearish.





S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  22 June, 2012.

A strong show early in the week and a whimper towards the end - summarizes the Bull action last week.
Falling out of the day channel and supported by the week channel top - Bears moved it SIDEways last week.
Closing below the 5 EMA - but above the MVWAP 34 - the short term is in neutral zone.
Histogram is ticking down fast...





Looking forward into the next week:
Staying above the EOW channel (white) top - Bulls would stay safe.
Bears would want to keep the Index (EOD & EOM screen) below the 5 EMA.
Watch the RSI on the EOW.
One expects the Bears to press home their recently acquired advantage.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 18 June to 22 June, 2012 - Bulls on the Edge..



Learning from the Past Week:
We summarized our Triple Screen Technical Analysis of last week with the note that "the Long Term Bear and the Medium / Short Term Bulls would slug it out next week" click
As this week's candle tells us - Index did move higher and then down, but ended just 9 points away from the previous week's close.
Lets see this week's information...





Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 22 June, 2012.

A minor increase from last week's close does not improve the month's candle.
However one can revisit the fact that, all three of our short term indicators are poised for a cross.
Which way is the moot point.





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 22 June, 2012.

This week's candle although red - stands above the previous week's.
It is also above the 5 EMA - inherently strong.
If the Nifty closes above 5125 next week, the 5 EMA will cross above the 13 SMA - This is Bullish.




Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 22 June, 2012.

An volatile week, saw a stale mate as the verdict.
Bulls finished strong as they were earlier - and above our short term MAs.
The 5 EMA and the 13 SMA look poised to meet and cross bearishly this week.
The MACD's Histogram has started ticking down.





Looking Forward into the next week:
Staying above the 5125 mark - Bulls can search for a Breakout above last week's highs.
Simultaneous Bearish cross (of 5EMA/13SMA) on the EOD and Bearish Deflection (of 5EMA/13SMA) on the EOW can take the index down fast.
Overhang of the Death's Cross remains - Next Golden Cross awaited.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 18 June to 22 June, 2012 - Bears eye a CROSS




.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun sen cross: Weak  Bearish  Signal (K)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (Te)
And the 'Hot' zone of this week, marked '1'



        DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:   
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 22 June, 2012


Learning from the past week:
Our concluding line of last week's study, was that the Index should stay above the Tenkan Sen (red line) (click)
It did not, and we had a red candle standing on the MVWAP 34.
The Oscillator is around the zero.2
Bulls would worry that we have a close below the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen. 1
Added to their woes, is the almost inevitable Bearish Cross of the Kijun Sen and the Tenkan Sen next week. 1




Looking forward into the next week:
Keeping above the MVWAP 34, may help the Bulls keep their turf for some more time. 
The expected, Bearish Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen CROSS  - helps Bears consolidate their hold.






BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 18 June to 22 June 2012 - In the Kumo




.....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.


Useful resources (free) from the Web:

Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Kumo Breakout: Bearish Signal (B)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (T)
Chikou Span Cross: Strong Bearish Signal (C) 
Chikou Span Cross: Weak  Bullish  Signal (C) 
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish  Signal (K)




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
The BSE Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 22 June, 2012.  

Learning from the Past Week:
We concluded last week, with the expectation that, the Index should effectively penetrate the Kumo (click)
As one can see from the last candle - it has managed to get a head in.3
More important, it has maintained the close above the MVWAP 34 and the Kijun Sen.3
Oscillator is ticking up.4



Looking Forward into the next Week:
Flat Kumo appears couple of weeks down the line - good for Bulls.
Staying inside the Kumo, keeps the Bull run healthy for now.