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Saturday, August 18, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 13 August to 17 August, 2012 - Meet the Last High !




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 17 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward. 






S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart: 
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 17 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q3 2011, onward.






S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:    
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  17 August, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Q2 2012, onward.







Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
RSI reading on the EOW (4) - stayed above the 70 mark, Bulls took off from where they were last week, to make it 6 green candles in a row - lucky 7?
Bulls have almost made it to the EOD channel top (5).
Negative Divergence on the MACD (6) and RSI (4) visible.
Bulls kept it above the 5 EMA and MVWAP 34, on all three screens.
The 'Three Inside Up' (1) has given Bulls a Green time this month.





Looking forward into the next Week:
RSI reading on the EOW (4), shows divergence and the MA3 has crossed the RSI9 bearishly, however, above the 70 mark, Bulls remain on top.
Bears need to break their nemesis of many weeks, the MVWAP 34 - after moving below the 5 EMA.
The Negative divergences seen on the EOD (6) and EOW (4) are harbingers of a downturn.
Bears would look at the white EOD channel top, giving them some resistance, to come back with, if and when the Index gets there.
Bulls continue on a 'Three Inside Up' (1), induced High!







CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 13 Aug to 17 August, 2012 - Channel Top Resistance




Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 17 Aug, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward.  





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:  
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 17 Aug, 2012.
 Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from 2010 onward.  





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 17 Aug, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
The Bulls were stopped by the Fibonacci 76.4% line seen on the EOD (5), just as we anticipated in our analysis, last week.
Bulls have stayed above the 5 EMA & 34 EMA on the EOM (1), EOW (3) & EOD (5). 
Bears hold the Index at the EOW channel top (3).
The resistance on the EOW - STS (4) also holds.
Negative Divergence on the MACD (6) is visible. 
The month at present looks like its forming a 'Bullish Engulfing Pattern' (1).



Looking Forward into the next Week:
Channel Top on the EOW (3), STS resistance (4) and the Fibonacci 76.4% on the EOD (5), together form a formidable Wall of Resistance for the Bulls.
The negative divergence (6) does not help their cause either.
So closing above the 5395 Wall, breaks the back of the Bears. 
Falling to below the MVWAP 34 (Monthly), approx 5315 would recharge the Bears.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 13 August to 17 August, 2012 - New Highs ?




                                .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as marked on chart below:

Kumo Breakout: Bullish Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish  Signal (T)




DJI 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud: 
DJI 30 - End of Week Chart - 17 August, 2012 




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Oscillator continues to tick up.
Index moves up on the strength of the Strong Bullish Cues seen.
Previous high is close, yet to be taken out.




Looking Forward into the next Week:
The negative divergence, developing on the Oscillator - remains a concern, for the Bulls.
Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls, next look at, taking out the previous high - a strong resistance.
Going into the (lucky?) seventh week - Bulls celebrate a rocking green run.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 13 August to 17 August, 2012 - Free of the Kumo ?



                           .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) as shown on chart below:

The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Weak  Bullish   Signal (Te)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Neutral  Bearish Signal (Cc)
The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral  Bullish  Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral  Bullish Signal (K)
The Kumo Break-out:   Bullish Signal (B)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong  Bullish Signal (T)




BSE 30: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (or) EOW with the Ichimoku Cloud:
The BSE  Sensex 30 - End of Week Chart - 17 Aug, 2012.




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Index remained with Bulls - above the Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen.
The Bullish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen cross happens and its a strong signal, as it occurs above the Kumo!





Looking forward into the next Week:
A Bullish Chikou Cross is in the works, if the index moves ahead with current momentum.
Bears look at the flat Kumo's gravity, pulling the index down, damping the breakout momentum. 
Staying free of the Kumo - Bulls hope for a breakout move, to beyond previous highs.