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Sunday, September 23, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 September to 21 September, 2012 - Consolidation..




S&P 500: Long Term View (or) Month Chart (each candle is 1 month's price move)  (or) EOM Chart:  
S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - 21 Sept, 2012
 Above is the Month Chart - EOM - analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward






S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart (each candle is 1 week's price move) (or) EOW Chart:
S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - 21 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Q2-Q3 2012, onward.






S&P 500: Short Term View (or) Day Chart (each candle is 1 day's price move)  (or) EOD Chart:     
S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  21 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD -  analyzing Data from Aug-Sept 2012, onward.





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)
We watched the action at the month chart's channel, and saw the resistance send back the bulls here (1).
Bears would use the Bearish Harami on the week chart (3) to get back into the action with a follow up.
Bulls would use the strength shown, by closing above the 5 EMA (5) - to resume the up-move.
Bears see the RSI sliding below the MA (4) on the Week chart as a plus.
Key indicators remain in the oversold zone (4,2)





Looking forward into the next Week:
Month Channel's top (2) at 1494 (max for Sept) a critical resistance last week, remains the challenge for the Bulls.
Currently Bulls have the momentum on all screens.
The classic 'consolidation phase' after an up move also looks done.
Failure to stay above the 5 EMA on the Day Chart (5) - would be the early warning signal of Bear Power.
If the Bearish Harami on the week chart (3) mutates into a Bearish 'Three inside down' - Bulls lose the advantage.
So watch if the next week looks like closing below this week's close - to trigger above Bearish Pattern.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 17 Sept to 21 Sept, 2012 - Channel top again



Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) Month Chart, each candle is 1 month's price action (or) EOM Chart: 
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - 21 Sept, 2012
Above is the Month Chart - EOM -  analyzing Data from 2008 onward. 





Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) Week Chart, each candle is 1 week's price action (or) EOW Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Week (EOW) Chart - 21 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Week Chart - EOW -  analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward.





Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) Day Chart, line chart of closing Prices  (or) EOD Chart:
CNX Nifty 50 - End of Day (EOD) Chart - 21 Sept, 2012.
Above is the Day Chart - EOD - analyzing Data from May 2012, onward. 






Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)
Bulls broke through last week's Day Channel top and reached the next logical day channel top - now shown on EOD (5). 
The short fuse oscillator (2) - stays up, displaying this month's action - to date.
Negative Divergence - MACD - persists (6).
STS on EOW (4) nudged the oversold line for the third time this year - and lucky 3 - moves into bull zone !






Looking Forward into the next Week:
Just as seen last week...
The support at STS (4) helps the Bulls. 
Index sustaining above the Fibonacci 76.4 %, as marked on the EOW (3) - would keep the Bull run intact.
A massive Pullback to the Monthly Channel's Green bottom line (1) - is on the cards, if above happens. 
Bears have the EOD Channel top (5) and '-ve' divergence (6) to look forward to. 
The EOD channel top resistance (5) gives the Bears, a chance of redemption, with a 'throwback' to EOW channel top (3).