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Sunday, December 16, 2012

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Bears see Red




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 14 December, 2012





S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 14 December, 2012






S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 14 December, 2012






Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Bulls fail to move back into the Week Channel #3 and Bears see a Red Candle for the week.
Bearish Deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #3 - seems likely.
Bearish Cross of the above MAs on the EOD #5 also imminent. 
Index slithers along. at or around the bottom line. of the EOW channel #3, #5.
Bulls manage to keep above the 34 MVWAP on the EOD #5. 
Bears close index below the critical 13 SMA on the week charts #3.


Last week again saw the Bulls and Bears maintain status 'quo on the medium term and short term - bears go stronger into the next week. 





Looking forward into the next Week:

Bearish Deflection and Cross of 5/13 MAs that we track, looks on next week on EOW and EOD  #3, #5.
Bulls need to move back decisively into the EOW channel to avert a slide #3.
Above the 5 EMA the Bulls retain Long Term strength  #1.
Below the 13 SMA the Bears gain an edge in the medium term #3.
Resistance continues at the EOW channel bottom, support is at the '23.6% Fibonacci retrace of the Oct'07 High and Mar'09 Low' #1.



Bears showed some strength last week, by positioning the index for a bearish move - now to see if they can take it down.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Hikkake..




 Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Dec '12 




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Dec '12




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from October 2012, onward - as on 14 Dec '2012




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from October. 2012, onward - as on 14 Dec '2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

A Red Week with a candle #3 which just fell short of being a Bearish Engulfing of the previous one..
We looked at the Bulls taking Step 1 for a Three Outside up, by staying above the resistance line on the EOD #5 - Bears ensure that this did not happen.
Another Three Outside up.#1 requirement which we studied last week was that the Nov'12 Close should be held by the Bulls - The week ended exactly at Nov'12 close i.e. 5880 !!
Bulls held the index above 5880 for most of the week - the fall on breach of this level was swift.
The fall came close to touching the 'Wall' for this month at 5825 before moving back to 5880.
A Bullish Hikkake which one can study here and here - forms on the EOD #7.



The Resistance line drawn on the EOD #5 held off the Bulls and the Bears were sent back near the Wall for the month.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

A 'Three Outside up' on the long term chart #1 combined with a 'Bullish Hikkake' on the EOD #7 - bodes good omens for the bull.
Falling below our Wall for December 5825 however, holds off above advantage.
Bullish Hikkake's effect would be known if 5925 is taken & held by the Bulls in the next two days.
Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on EOD is on - a close above 5900 on Monday and it becomes a Bullish Deflection.



Keeping above the Wall at all costs and November's Close are critical for Bulls - Couple of Candles to go on the EOD, to know the fate of the Bullish Hikkake as studied above.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - On the Range




                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  


New:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Weak Bearish  Signal (T)




Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 14 December, 2012





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bearish - 'Kijun Sen (blue line) - Tenkan Sen' (red line) Cross happens as anticipated,  its a weak signal as it occurs when the price is above the Kumo #1.
The Oscillator ticks up while still in the negative #2.




Looking Forward into the next Week:

A Senoku Span Cross - if it happens from this position - is bad news for the Bulls.
Bears get their Bearish Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen Cross #1 - and life inside the Kumo beckons.
Bulls keep the index above the MVWAP 34, Tekan Sen (red line) and the Kijun Sen (blue line) #1. 
Above two should produce some Ranging.



The Blue Line (Kijun Sen) and Red Line (Tenkan Sen) Crossing last week, could result in some Consolidation. 





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 10 December to 14 December, 2012 - Engulfed on High..



                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Neutral Bullish Signal (K)
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Strong Bullish Signal (T) 
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Cc)  

Last:
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 14 December, 2012




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls keep above the Tenkan Sen #1 but lose ground..
Oscillator ticks up again #2
Flat Kumo effect on.
This Week's red candle Engulfs the previous week's green candle.



Looking forward into the next Week:

Staying above the Kumo - advantage is with the Bulls.
Flat Kumo Effect could be on for a few more weeks.
Bulls would need to remain above the Tenkan Sen #2 to keep the momentum on.




Possibility of a Bearish, 'Kijun Sen - Tenkan Sen' Cross continues to be the Bear Hope..