Sunday, July 7, 2013

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 July to 05 July: 2013 - Bulls get 3 outside up..



Nifty 50: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action 



Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action 



Nifty 50: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - line chart of daily closing Prices 






Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)


Patterns:

  • June month gave us a 'Hanging Man' Candle. We earlier studied May's Shooting Star which was profitable for Bears - these are on the EOM #1 Charts. 
  • On the Medium Term however, last week's  'Bullish Engulfing' graduates into a 'Three Outside Up' and keeps the Bull camp going, as anticipated #3.

Support & Resistance:

  • Revised Day Channel shows Bulls nudging the Channel top #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' was resistance #5.
  • STS #4 shows where Bulls got support last week.

Moving Averages:

  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly #5.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term poised to cross Bullishly or deflect otherwise #5.
  • Index closes below 13 SMA on the Medium Term - last week ALSO #3.

Indicators:

  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls a pip ahead..
  • Volumes falter #6.
  • MACD and its MA cross Bullishly and Histogram ticks positive #6.

Bulls use the 'Three Outside Up' #3 to remain in the Green another week..






Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:


Support & Resistance:

  • Revised Day Channel top and the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' are now resistance - to beat - for the Bulls #5.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support zone for Bears  to crack #5.

Moving Averages:

  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA approach for a Bullish Cross or Bearish Deflection #3.
  • Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term - needs to be crossed by the Bulls to Progress #3.
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.

Indicators:

  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 starts July in Bull zone - to be watched.
  • Volumes dipping for the up move, good for Bears #6.
  • STS resistance line can support Bulls for an up move #4.

Bears hope the combined effect of the Shooting Star and Hanging Man #1 will kick in soon - Bulls look forward to the Three Outside Up giving some more gains #3