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Sunday, March 3, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Bulls Sweat over Channel Top Stop



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 March'13




S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 01 March'13




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 01 March'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Day Channel bottom Support, #D1, helps the Bulls, a green Doji week seen.
#M1, #W1, #D1 - show us that the Month Channel's red top line, is a strong resistance to the price line.
5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts #D1, which was seen crossing bearishly last week, look  poised for a cross or deflection again.
RSI #W2, and its MA cross bearishly while the action at the STS #M2 shows the Bull's Long Term Strength.
Bulls retake the short term screen #D1 & #D2. 
MVWAP 34, supports price again #D1.


Bulls keep above critical MAs on all three screen - Bears hold the Long Term Channel Top - Doji Week once again..




The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.




Looking forward into the next Week:

Month channel's, top red line #M1, continues to be a crucial resistance for Bulls.
The MVWAP 34 on the EOD and the Day channel bottom #D1, remains the support.
Holding the price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, is the next task for the Bears.
Bullish cross of the 13 SMA with 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 critical for the Bulls - Bearish Deflection at this stage, would be a boon for the Bears.
The Long Term Channel Top #M1 is our resistance and the Short Term Channel Bottom #D1 is our Support.



The Bullish cross / deflection of critical MAs (5 EMA & 13 SMA) on the Short Term Screen #D1 needs a watch as does the action near the Resistance #M1 & Support #D1 that we studied above.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 25 February to 01 March, 2013 - Mid Life Crisis..


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 March'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 01 March'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Channel Top Stop on the EOW #3, remains the nemesis of Bulls for yet another week.
2 crows pattern which we studied, gives the Bears #3 - more gains.
5 EMA on the EOM #1, fails to support the Bulls, its a critical resistance now. 
Day channel #5 (new) sees the Price taking support at the the channel bottom.
50 SMA and 200 SMA converge - on the EOD charts #5.
MACD Histogram shows positive divergence to price #6.
The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high breaks, while the 61.8% holds the Price #1. 
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows that the Bulls are around for a comeback #4.


Sent back at the Channel Top #3 on the Medium Term Screen, Price is at the Channel's Middle Line. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Channel Middle (blue) and 34 EMA on the EOW, is the new support for Bulls #3.
Bouncing from the green bottom line of the new EOD channel #5 - Bulls could attempt a retake of the short term screen.
2 crows pattern that we studied last few weeks, to be followed up for its targets.
50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Getting above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1 - is important for Bulls to get a shot at new Highs.
Support line on the STS #4, worth a watch.

The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the last low (Jan'12) from Nifty's all time high #1, is resistance and the 61.8% the support to watch.