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Sunday, April 7, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013 - Knocked back by the All Time High




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 05 April'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from OND, 2011 onward - as on 05 April'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 05 April'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Bears hold the 'All Time High Line' #M1
The short term screen gets into neutral zone #D1.
5 EMA crosses bearishly below the 13 SMA and takes support on the MVWAP34 #D1.
Triple top on Long Term Charts - keeps the Bear hopes high.
Bears move the index below the 5 EMA on short #D1 and medium term #W1 screens.
RSI and its MA re-cross bearishly #W2.
Day channel holds the bears #D1.



Bears defend the 'All Time High' Line and Bulls hold the Day Channel #D1.



The Ellipses marked #M1, #W1 and #D1 indicate the hot spots on the long, medium and short term charts respectively.
As one can see - we are zooming into the action starting #M1 through #W1 and get up close in #D1.





Looking forward into the next Week:

Day channel's  #D1, bottom green line and MVWAP34, remains the support for the Bulls.
Bulls aim for the all time high of the SP500 (1576) - resistance #W1, #M1.
Keeping the price, below the 5 EMA on the EOW #3, bears remain strong.
Triple Top on the Long Term Screen, remains the bane of the Bulls for some more time
5 EMA and 13 SMA on day charts #D1, crossing near the 'All Time High' was good for Bears.
Breaking the Day Channel #D1 is the next task for the Bears...



With the Bulls struggling near the 'All Time High', focus shifts to the triple top and its implications...




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013 - Three Outside Down Effect !




Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 05 April'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 05 April'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 05 April'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

The Three Outside Down's effect over the week and a bounce in first couple of days happened  last week.
Position of the STS on the EOW, shows the Bull's next possible support #4.
200 DMA on the EOD #5 fails last week  - Bears get the honey.
Price heads towards the 50% Fibonacci retrace of the Jan'12 low to All time high #5.
Price also nears the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 2009 low and All time high #3.
13 SMA on the Month Chart acts as support last week #1.



Three Outside Down' Triggered #1 after last month's close and Bears get a 200+ point fall.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross to be watched #5.
Staying above 5538, the 13 SMA on the Month Charts #1 - is important for Bulls to fight back.
Bullish Cross/deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to be watched for #5.
Pull back to Day Channel's green bottom line to be watched for #5.
Crashing below the 200 SMA #5, gives the Bears a strong overhead resistance to count on.
Bears rule short and medium term screens - long term is neutral as of now.



The Three Outside Down's effect continues, if the Bulls cannot keep above 5538 (EOW).




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013, 2013 - Pause again !



                             .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......

Introduction can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 
Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.



Previous Signals seen on DJI 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below

The Kumo Breakout: Strong Bullish  Signal (B)
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Chikou Span Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (cC)  
Tenkan Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (Te)  
The Kijun sen cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (K) 

Last:
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross:  Strong Bullish Signal (T)


Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 05 April'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for that post)


Bulls pause for a week..  #2..
The Chikou Span #1, maintains its distance to the price line.
The Oscillator #3 ticks up - divergence with Price muted.



Advantage continues with the Bulls.





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears need the index back below the cluster of supports MVWAP 34, Kijun Sen and Tenkan Sen #2.
Bearish Divergence less apparent on the Oscillator #3.
Bulls would look at keeping the advantage - keeping clear of the Ichimoku Indicators.



Bears look forward to a reversal and getting below the Tenkan Sen - Bulls seek new highs..





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Week: 01 April to 05 April, 2013 - Kumo beckons



                     .....Regulars can skip below and go straight to the chart......


Introduction / Preamble can be read at this link (click). 


Quick Reference : 

Chikou Span - pink line,
Kijun Sen - blue line, 
Senkou Span A - black line, 
Senkou Span B - grey line, 
Kumo - grey shaded area,
Tenkan Sen - red line.




Previous Signals seen on BSE 30 - Week Chart (EOW) marked on chart as per notes below:

The Senoku Span Cross:  Neutral Bullish Signal (Ss)
The Kumo Break-out: Bullish Signal (B)  
The Flat Kumo: Bearish Signal (Ko)
The Tenkan Sen Cross:  Bearish Signal (Te)
The Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (K)

New:
The Chikou Span Cross:  Weak Bearish Signal (Cc)  
The Tenkan Sen/Kijun Sen Cross: Weak Bearish Signal (T) 



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 months Data - as on 05 April'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Bulls fail to avoid the Bearish Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross  #2.
Oscillator continues to tick down #3.
Chikou Span crosses under the price line to make a weak Bearish Signal #1.



A Bullish Chikou Span Cross / Deflection of last week, was not held by the Bulls, Bears continue with the fall..





Looking Forward into the next Week:

Getting above the Tenkan Sen would be the next Bull task #2.
Chikou Span staying below price line a must for the Bear run #1.
The Bearish Cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #2, stays on unless Bulls take off from here and reach Feb'2013 levels...



Next notable resistance for the Bears is the Kumo - Bulls would hope it does not have to go there...