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Sunday, July 14, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 08 July to 12 July: 2013 - Bulls break towards new High



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 12 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 12 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 12 July'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)

Patterns:
  • With the 'Three inside Down' on the Month Charts kept at bay last week, index moves towards earlier 'All time highs' #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls break through the previous week's channel bottom #D1 - and we have a new red channel for the Day Chart.
  • Index almost near the  'All Time High' of May'13 - which is resistance for Bulls #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA deflects the 13 SMA, completely on the Medium term charts #W1.  
  • July uses the Long Term 5 EMA as support #M1.
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
  • Index kept above the 5 EMA on the EOD charts, all of last week #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI keeps above its MA while below oversold #W2.
  • Oscillator nudges above the oversold mark #D2.


Bulls get 
a COMPLETE deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1 and push for a new 'All Time High'





Looking forward into the next Week:

Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • All Time High (May'13) #D1 remains the next resistance for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support for the Bears to contend with.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #W1  - Deflection was good for Bulls. 
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #D1  - Cross would be good for Bears.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #D2 in oversold favors the Bulls.
  • RSI sliding below its MA while below oversold #W2 - good for bears.


Bears hope the All time High holds, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 08 July to 12 July: 2013 - 3 outside up gains..



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 12 July'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 12 July'13


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 12 July'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls break out of Day Channel top #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' cleared #5.
  • STS #4 turned out to be a good support for Bulls.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly #5.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term, touch for deflection or cross #5.
  • Index closes above the critical 13 SMA on the Medium Term  #3.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls a pip ahead..
  • Volumes pick up  #6. Overall lower #4.
  • MACD and its MA near the zero mark and Histogram ticks positive #6.

Bulls use the 'Three Outside Up' #3 to gain ground in their 3rd green week..




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • The Day Channel top marked #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support zone for Bears  to crack #5.
Moving Averages:
  • Index staying above 6006 means 5 EMA and 13 SMA make a Bullish Cross, else a Bearish Deflection #3.
  • Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
  • 13 SMA on the Medium Term - needs to be re-crossed by the Bears to get back in the game #3.
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross - moving closer for the last 10 days  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 remains in Bull zone - to be watched.
  • Volumes dipping for the up move, good for Bears #4.
  • STS resistance line did and continues to support Bulls for an up move #4.

Bears hope that on the Medium Term Screen #3, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA deflect with the index below 6006 for the week - Bulls look forward to the Three Outside Up giving some more gains #3