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Sunday, July 21, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 15 July to 19 July: 2013 - Bulls make new High



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 19 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 19 July'13




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 19 July'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the post)


Patterns:
  • Bulls look at saying 'bye bye' to the 'Triple Top Threat' with another up move and High #M1
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls break through the previous All Time High and move the bar a little higher #W1.
  • Index has also the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances to clear #M1,#W1 & #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • The 5 EMA deflecting the 13 SMA, on the Medium term charts #W1 last week, aids this move for the Bulls.  
  • July uses the Long Term 5 EMA as support #M1.
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
  • Index kept above the 5 EMA on the EOD charts, for the last two weeks #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI peeps above oversold line #W2.
  • Oscillator stays oversold  #D2.


Bulls get a new 'All Time High'




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:


Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High (July'13) and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #W1  - Deflection was good for Bulls. 
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #D1  - Cross would be good for Bears.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #D2 slipping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI sliding below its MA #W2 - would be good for Bears.



Bears hope one of the Channel Top Resistances hold, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 15 July to 19 July: 2013 - High Wave Risk..



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 19 July'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 19 July'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Nov' 2012, onward - as on 19 July'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the post)

Patterns:

  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - stay mute. 
  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, the previous week's  'Three Outside Up' gave the Bulls, another green candle - ends with a possible 'High Wave' Candle.
  • Closing the month at these levels - July's candle would 'Bullishly Engulf'  the June Candle #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' supports Index last week #5.
  • STS support line #4, acts hold the bulls, for this up move.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bullishly crossed #5.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term, manage to cross Bullishly after Index clears 6006 #5.
  • Index closes above the critical 13 SMA on the Medium Term  #3.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls a pip ahead..
  • Volumes pick up - EOD and EOW.
  • MACD and its MA clear the zero mark, Histogram ticks down #6.

Bulls use the 'Three Outside Up' #3 to keep it up for their 4th green week..




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The Day Channel top marked #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support zone for Bears  to get below #5.
Moving Averages:
  • If the Index stays above 5939 EOW, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA would stay Bullishly Crossed in the Medium Term #3.
  • Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross needs watching  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 remains in Bull zone.
  • STS resistance line did and continues to support Bulls for an up move #4.
  • High Volume this week together with a 'High Wave' Candle is bad news for Bulls.

Bulls look forward to the Three Outside Up giving some more gains #3 - Bears pray for a High Wave, taking them below 5939.