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Sunday, July 28, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 July to 26 July: 2013 - Bulls stay on a High




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 26 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 26 July'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 26 July'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bulls look at saying 'bye bye' to the 'Triple Top Threat' keeping the new Highs #M1
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls consolidate around their new Highs #W1.
  • Index has also the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances to clear #M1,#W1 & #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • July uses the Long Term 5 EMA as support #M1.
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
  • Index slips below the 5 EMA on the EOD charts, midweek #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day charts #D1 poised to deflect or Cross..
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 slides below oversold & Divergence to Price is apparant #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) stays oversold, MA crosses below it  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) pops into oversold - see earlier pops too #M2.


Bulls stick around their 'All Time High'




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:



Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High (July'13) and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  #D1  - Deflection good for Bulls. - Cross would be good for Bears.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping above oversold unlike past instances .. favors the Bulls.
  • RSI sliding below its MA #W2 - would be good for Bears.



Bears hope one of the Channel Top Resistances hold, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.


CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 22 July to 26 July: 2013 - High Wave Dive !



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 26 July'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 26 July'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 26 July'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, last week's 'High Wave' Candle gives the Bears relief.
  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - see life as the month end appears. 
  • Closing the month at these levels - July's candle would NOT 'Bullishly Engulf'  the June Candle - as was seen possible last week #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' fails to hold the Bears #5.
  • STS support line shows the point of reversal for the last up move #4. 
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bearishly #5.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA in the Medium Term, cross Bearishly after Index falls below our mark of 5939 #5.
  • Index closes below the critical 13 SMA on the Medium Term  #3.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls a pip ahead..
  • Volumes flat to lower for the down move -  EOW.
  • MACD and its MA cross bearishly, Histogram ticks down #6.

Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to stop the Bull run..




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The Day Channel top marked #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is support, above this the blue center line of the EOD channel provides initial support for Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • If the Index gets above 5969 EOW, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA would recross Bullishly in the Medium Term #3.
  • Keeping above the 200 SMA on the Day Charts good for Bulls #5.
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA, convergence towards a death cross needs watching  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 remains in Bull zone.
  • Flat Volume this settlement week together with a red Candle - slightly favors the Bulls.

Bulls see life above 5969 - Bears seek to dive some more on the High Wave Candle's effect.