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Sunday, August 11, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 05 August to 09 August: 2013 - Bear Attack



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 09 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 09 Aug'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Nov'2012, onward - as on 09 Aug'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • Index has the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1,#W1 & #D1.
  • Month Channel Top near resistance last week #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1.
  • Index slips below the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD charts - by end of the week #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Day charts #D1 meet. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 stays below oversold & Divergence to Price is apparent #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) stays oversold  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.


Bears Fight back.




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • The Bearish Harami seen in the Medium Term Chart - next week's candle candle closing lower makes it a Three Inside Down #W1. Study Links here, here or anywhere else.
Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Short Term Charts #D1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping above oversold favors the Bulls - notice that its dipping down like in earlier attempts
  • RSI sliding below its MA and the negative divergence to Price works for the Bears #W1



Bears look to a 'Three Inside Down' on the Medium Term #W1, Bulls call for a new High and more #M1.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 05 August to 08 August: 2013 - Death Cross Watch 2



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 08 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 08 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 08 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied 3 weeks ago, gives the Bears more cheer.
  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - give the Bears much to cheer about. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 61.8% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' cracks  #5.
  • Index bounces off our Day Channel's bottom #5 exactly.
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA cross bearishly in a Death Cross #5 as anticipated last week. 
  • Index takes support on the stable 34 EMA, on the Long Term Chart  #5.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line.
  • MACD Histogram ticks up #6.



Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross..




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The 200 SMA #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' is the next available support for the Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed keeps the Bulls under pressure #5.. 
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 are currently Bearishly Crossed (as its below 5655) it can Bullishly Deflect if Index gets above 5655 for August.  
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run if the Bulls get to stay above it for August.



Bulls want life above 5655 and a golden Cross -  Bears wish to crack the 34 EMA #1 and the EOD Channel bottom #5.