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Monday, August 26, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 August to 23 August: 2013 - Bears Channel Down



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 23 Aug'13


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 23 Aug'13


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July 2013, onward - as on 23 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • The 'Three Inside Down' that we studied  on the weekly charts takes Index lower - Bulls however bounce back to close in the Green #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index continues to have the Day channel Top, Week Channel Top and Month Channel Top as resistances on the upside #M1, #W1 & #D1.
  • The White Month Channel Top Line sends back the Bulls for the current dip  #W1.
  • We have a new Day Channel to study from this week #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls again defend the 13 SMA - Index Closes the week above the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA remain crossed bullishly but poised for a bearish cross #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 peeks above the 50 mark - MA looks like crossing above the RSI bullishly #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 (now on EOD) heads for the over bought  #D2.
  • Oscillator (now on EOM) dips below oversold - see earlier dips too #M2.


Bears keep the Short Term Screen.




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
Support & Resistance:
  • New All Time High and all the Channel Tops Red, Blue and White #D1, are the next resistances for the Bulls.The 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support. 
  • We continue to have the 34 MVWAP on the Day Chart #D1 and 34 MVWAP on the Week Chart #W1 as closer Resistance and Support respectively. 
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • 5 EMA & 13 SMA  on the Medium Term Charts #W1 -  poised to cross Bearishly - to be watched.
  • Getting below the 13 SMA on the Week Charts - EOW #W1 important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • RSI crossing above its MA will work for the Bulls #W1



Bears look to the 'Three Inside Down' #W1 giving more gains, Bulls look to get moving above the 34 MVWAP on the EOW #W1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Week: 19 August to 23 August: 2013 - Takuri Time



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 23 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 23 Aug'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Apr' 2013, onward - as on 23 Aug'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • On the Medium Term EOW #3, the 'High Wave' Candle studied few weeks ago, gives the Bears a Takuri Week after a long Bear Run.
  • June's 'Hanging Man' Candle & May's Shooting Star on the Long Term EOM #1 Charts - gave Bears support from July End..
Support & Resistance:
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' stands last week  #5.
  • Index cracks Day Channel and pulls back to its bottom #5 exactly. 
Moving Averages:
  • 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • Index keeps above the important 200 SMA on the Week Charts #3.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 on the long term charts show Bulls slipping below the center line.
  • MACD Histograms diverge positive relative to price,  MACD and its MA deflect last week #6.
  • STS #4 stays down after diving into the oversold after 18 odd months.



Bears ride the 'High Wave' #3 to a Death Cross #5, get a 500 point fall and now face Takuri Times...




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

Support & Resistance:
  • The day channel bottom #5 is now resistance - for the Bulls.
  • The 50% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' remains support for the Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5 keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Long Term #1 are currently Bearishly Crossed (Index below 5655) it can Bullishly Deflect if Index gets above 5655 for August.  
  • 13 SMA and 5 EMA on the Short Term #5 Bearishly Deflected earlier - a Bullish Cross would be just the impetus for the Bulls to get back some ground.
Indicators:
  • 'Trend Deviation' Indicator #2 could see the Index bounce of its center line for a new Bull run if the Bulls get to stay above it from August.



Bulls want life above 5655 and a Golden Cross -  Bears seek to close below the 34 EMA #1 and stay below the EOD Channel bottom #5.