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Sunday, September 22, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - New High :- Week: 16 September to 20 September: 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 20 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 20 Sept'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 20 Sept'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • 'Three  Inside Up' studied last week gives the Bulls a new High #W1.
  • 'Opening White Marubozus' also mentioned last week - help the up-move #W1.
  • Bearish 'Head &Shoulder' Pattern fails to materialize early in the week #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The New 'All time High' and the new Day Channel Top (Pink) were resistances #D1. 
  • The short Term 5 EMA was support for the Bulls last week  #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bullishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • On the EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bullishly deflected #W1. 
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 touches overbought #W2.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 also in over bought zone  #D2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.

Wrap:
Bears lose their way, Bulls ride to a new High.. 


Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Medium Term Chart the 'Three  Inside Up' which we studied using links from herehere or elsewhere, is still active.
  • The last candle on the EOM and EOW Charts are bullish 'Opening White Marubozus' and they are worth a study herehere or anywhere
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the new 'All Time High' #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Month Channel Top (blue) is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying above the 13 SMA on the Week Charts #W1 important for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 remaining in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #W1

Wrap:
Bulls see the 'Marubozus' and the 'Three Inside Up' #W1, continuing the up-move - Bears want life below the 5 EMA on the EOD to start with #D1.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull Zone :- Week: 16 September to 20 September: 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 20 Sept'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 20 Sept'13




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 20 Sept'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • The two Takuri Weeks we had seen here and here - give the Bulls a third 'Green' Weekly candle #3.
  • Last candle resembles a 'High Wave' #3.
  • Volume for the last candle on the EOW was High.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA on the EOD was the support the Bulls kept tenaciously above, early last week #5. 
  • 5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 was the resistance the Bulls cracked in the second half of last week.
  • Checkmate for first half of the week - as the Index remained between above levels. Break out in the second half of the week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • EOM - Index stays above the 13 SMA #1, but the 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bearishly Crossed - Bearish overhang remains.
  • EOW - 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly #3. 
Indicators:
  • Indicator #2 on the Month charts show Bulls above the mid-point.
  • STS approaches overbought #4.
  • MACD above the zero line - Histogram tick down #6.

Wrap:
After persisting above the 200 SMA for two weeks, Index breaks into the Bull Zone (above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high')..



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The High Wave which appeared near the last peak (see post) produced a deep fall for the Bears .. a revision is good here, here or elsewhere.
  • High volume Week with a High Wave candle helps bears.
Support & Resistance:
  • Last week's EOD Chart showed the Bulls doing a Throw Back to the Channel Top - this week we see the followup move #5.
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the new support for the Index #5.
  • EOD channel top is the next resistance for Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, breaks with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - magic number Bulls need to clear in Sept'13 is 6016.
 Indicators:
  • MACD remaining above zero #6 - critical for Bulls to stay in the game.

Wrap:
Bears need to get below 5915 to get back in the game. Current Bull run gets stronger if Bulls go & live above 6016.