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Monday, October 7, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls see a long 3 inside up :- Week: 30 September to 04 October, 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 04 Oct'13

S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 04 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 04 Oct'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami - October Candle to-date looks like making it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (study). 
Support & Resistance:
  • The short Term 34 EMA was support for the Bulls last week  #D1.
  • Day Chart 13 SMA was the nearest resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay crossed Bearishly on the EOD charts #D1.
  • Index ends near the 5 EMA on the Medium and well above the 5 EMA on the long Term Charts #W1, #M1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 returns from the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bears almost get their wish to get below the 5 EMA (EOW), Bulls get a 'Three Inside Up' in progress on the Long Term..


Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Long Term Chart a Bullish 'Three  Inside Up' (study) is in progress for October ..
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA on the Short Term Chart is the nearest Support for the Bulls, while the 13 SMA #D1 is resistance.
  • Beyond these the 76.4% Fibonacci Retrace #M1 - is the next major support and the Month Channel Top (blue) is the resistance seen, #M1.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • Staying below the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 important for Bears in the short term.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 getting back to the over bought zone, will work for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls hope the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, forms in October - Bears want life below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.






The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bears touch Kijun Sen :- Week: 30 September to 04 October, 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 04 Oct'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bears get another red week - slip a mite below the Kijun Sen #2.
Chikou Span gets nearer to the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow but steady #2.


Bears take the advantage.. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bears slipkeep index below Kijun Sen, and take the advantage #2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B is a concern for Bears #3. 
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #2.


Bulls need to get back above the Tenkan Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #2.

 



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - In the Zone :- Week: 30 September to 04 October, 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 04 Oct'13


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 04 Oct'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 04 Oct'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami - October Candle to-date looks like making it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (study). 
  • EOW's 'High Wave#3 suffers an early demise as the larger time frame bullishness dominates..
Support & Resistance:
  • Our Support line at 50 SMA on the EOD holds the Bears early last week #5. 
  • 5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 foils the Bulls later in the week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • EOM - Index stays above the 13 SMA #1, but the 5 EMA and 13 SMA stay Bearishly Crossed - Bearish overhang remains.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance line, seen last week, holds the Bulls #4.


Wrap:
Bears hold the Index just below 5915 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'),  the 50 SMA supports the Index Intra-week.



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The Bullish 'Three Inside Up' (study) forming on the Long Term Chart #1 - worth a watch.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the resistance for the Index #5.
  • 50 SMA is the support for Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, breaks with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - the number Bulls need to stay above, in Oct'13 is 6003.
 Indicators:
  • STS resistance which trumped the Bulls last week, worth a watch #4.


Wrap:


Bears need to stay below 5915 to remain in the game. Current Bull run on, if Index remains above the 200 SMA #5.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up 3 :- Week: 30 September to 04 October, 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 04 Oct'13




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

The Senkou Span A&B stay met, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also stay met and they all read 19094.20 - a rare sight, third week in a row #5.
Bulls come back with a precise bounce off the Kumo #2.


Bears hold on to their last line #5..Bulls precisely bounce off Kumo #2.




Looking Forward into the next Week:


The Senkou Span B crossing above the Senkou Span A #4 or the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen #3 would give the Bulls the Medium Term Screen completely.

Bears manage to hold their border with this line up $5. 
Chikou Span remains close enough to Price Line - deflection or cross a couple of weeks away #1.


Bears desperate to hold their line #5 - Bulls seek to complete the kill #3 & #4.