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Monday, October 14, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls revive '3 inside up' :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 11 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 11 Oct'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 11 Oct'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Despite a volatile week Bulls maintain the 'Three Inside up' (study) in progress #M1, seen last week.  
Support & Resistance:
  • The short Term Channel Bottom was support for the Bulls last week  #D1.
  • Last 'All time High' was the nearest resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly on Friday last (EOD) #D1.
  • Index which was heading towards the 200 SMA on the EOD #D1 - turns around and heads  for the last 'All time High'.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 returns from the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls keep the 'Three Inside Up' in progress on the Long Term .. despite the intra-week dive.




Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • On the Long Term Chart a Bullish 'Three  Inside Up' (study) continues to be in-progress for October ..
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Staying above the 5 EMA on the EOM #M1 - shows long term strength of the Bulls.
  • RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price apparent, #W2, important for Bears.
Indicators:
  • Oscillator #M2 keeping below oversold favors the Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 getting back to the over bought zone, will work for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls hope the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, forms in October - Bears want life below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls back :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 11 Oct'13




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get back the Kijun Sen & Tenkan Sen #2.
Chikou Span near the Price line #1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow but steady #2.
Yo-yo in fortunes continue for Bulls and Bears..


Bulls wrest back the advantage.. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls get index above Kijun Sen, and get back the advantage #2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line important - to be watched for cross or deflection #1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B is a concern for Bears #3. 
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #2.


Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #2.

 


CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Zone Breakout :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 11 Oct'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 11 Oct'13

Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 11 Oct'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • As studied last week - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami - October Candle to-date looks like making it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (study). 
Support & Resistance:
  • 5915, the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' #5 fails the Bears early in the week.
  • All time High beckons the Bulls #5.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bearishly in a Death Cross #5. 
  • EOM - 5 EMA and 13 SMA cross Bullishly last week - Bearish overhang lifts for now.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance line, seen last week, holds back the Bulls #4.


Wrap:
Bulls clear 5915 (the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'),  All time High beckons..



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • The Bullish 'Three Inside Up' (study) forming on the Long Term Chart #1 - was worth a watch and continues to be focus area.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high' (5915) is the support for the Index #5.
  • Last 'All time high' is the resistance #5.
Moving Averages:
  • 200 SMA and 50 SMA on the Day Charts remaining Bearishly Crossed #5, keeps the Bulls under pressure. 
  • Bear overhang of the Long Term #1, broke with the 5 EMA and 13 SMA crossing Bullishly - the number Bulls need to stay clear of, in Oct'13 is 6003.
 Indicators:
  • STS resistance line which trumped the Bulls last couple of weeks to be watched #4.


Wrap:
Bears place their hopes on the Death Cross #5 and STS Resistance #4 - Bulls eye the 'All time High' #5.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up 4 :- Week: 07 October to 11 October, 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 11 Oct'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

The Senkou Span A&B stay met, Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also stay met and they all read 19094.20  - a rare sight, fourth straight week in a row #5.
Bulls extend gains reaching up to recent highs #2.


Bears hold on to their last line #5..Bulls near previous Highs #2.




Looking Forward into the next Week:


The Senkou Span B crossing above the Senkou Span A #4 or the Tenkan Sen above the Kijun Sen #3 would give the Bulls the Medium Term Screen completely.

Bears manage to hold their border with this line up  #5. 
Chikou Span remains close enough to Price Line - deflection or cross a few weeks away #1.


Bears desperate to hold their line #5 - Bulls seek to complete the kill #3 & #4.