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Monday, November 4, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Long Term '3 inside up' - Week 1, November 2013.


S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 01 Nov'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2011 onward - as on 01 Nov'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from July'2013, onward - as on 01 Nov'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)




Patterns:
  • As studied earlier - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami  (Study Link herehere or elsewhere) #M1. October closes above September and makes it a 'Three Inside up'.
Support & Resistance:
  • The Month Channel Top (blue) resistance was cleared by the Bulls last week with a new ATH , new channel shown  #M1 - This is current resistance.
  • 13 SMA on the EOD was the support #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls slip below the 5 EMA on the EOD last week #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 remains below the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls get the 'Three Inside Up' on the Long Term and make another new 'ATH'



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • October closing above September's close makes it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) - now to hold the line..
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the 3 Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Slipping below the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 - shows loss of momentum for Bulls.
Indicators:
  • RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price (arrow) #W2, plus for Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls get the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, in October - Bears aim to keep the index below the 5 EMA #D1 .



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull Peak again - Week 1, November 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 01 Nov'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get higher and level up to previous peaks #W2.
Chikou Span still around the Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow and steady #W2.


Bulls keep the advantage.. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, but to retain advantage they need momentum #W2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line reduces - to be watched for cross or deflection #W1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) is a concern for Bears #W3. 
Narrowing gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen should worry the Bulls #W2.


Bulls look for momentum to rise above previous peaks while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #W2.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Golden Cross ! - Week 1, November 2013.


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 03 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 03 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug' 2013, onward - as on 03 Nov'13





Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • As studied last month - August and September Candles form a Bullish Harami  (Study Link herehere or elsewhere) #M1. October closed above September giving the Bulls a 'Three Inside up'.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep above the Channel middle on the EOD #D1 - which was support last couple of weeks.
  • All time High (ATH) #D1, was resistance last week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA cross bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • 5 EMA on EOW #W1 was the support for the Bulls.
Indicators:
  • STS reaches the over bought - resistance of the previous weeks is now support #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls flirt with the All time High bearing a Golden Cross ..



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Patterns:

  • October closing above September's close makes it a Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere). 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 34 EMA is last major support for the Bulls #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 is a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • 50 SMA getting above the 200 SMA (at last!) #D1 makes a Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) and gives the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
 Indicators:
  • STS resistance line becomes a strong support on the way down #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls eye the 'All time High' after the Golden Cross #D1 - Bears dig in, to hold the ATH near the Week channel top #W1.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - The Bear Line Up - Bulls, 7th time lucky - Week 1, November 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 01 Nov'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


The Senkou Span A moves higher than Span B #W4 AND Tenkan Sen moves above Kijun Sen #W3 after 6 weeks stuck to each other. The 7th week turns Lucky for the Bulls.
Bears lose their last Line of defense and also control of the Medium Term Screen #W2.


Bulls make a new High #W2 and get two Strong Bullish Signals last week.





Looking Forward into the next Week:


The Bullish Senkou Span Cross #W4 and the Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen Cross #W3 give the Bulls control of the Medium Term Screen.

Bears get unlucky in the 7th week. 
Chikou Span moves away relative to the Price Line - deflection or cross some time away #W1.


Bulls get to dominate the Medium Term.