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Monday, November 11, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 'Long Term Channel top' vs '3 inside up' - Week 2 of November 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 11 Nov'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 11 Nov'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 11 Nov'13




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts produces a green November to date - Channel Top resistance holds.
Support & Resistance:
  • The Month Channel Top (blue) is resistance along with the ATH, #D1. 
  • 5 EMA on the EOW was the support #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls slip below the 5 EMA on the EOD for half of last week but close above it on Friday #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 remains below the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bullish 'Three Inside Up' on the Long Term #M1 keeps it green - Bears force ranging (study) #D1..



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the 3 Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Slipping below the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 for half of last week - shows loss of momentum for Bulls.
  • Deflection or Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, next week would show the direction going forward #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI staying below the oversold, with its divergence to Price #W2, plus for Bears.
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls use the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, to stay green in November - Bears aim for a bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA  #D1.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Peak again - Week 2 of November 2013.


Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 11 Nov'13





Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get higher and nudge ahead of previous peaks #W2.
Chikou Span still around the Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow and increasing #W2.


Wrap: Bulls keep the advantage.. 




Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, and have gained some momentum #W2.
Chikou Span's distance to Price line low - to be watched for cross or deflection #W1.  
Widening gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) is a concern for Bears #W3. 
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen increasing - disadvantage Bears #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look for more momentum to rise above previous peaks while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Cross Bears - Week 2 of November 2013.


Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 11 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 11 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 11 Nov'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 as bears claim honors for the first week of the month.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls slip below the Channel middle on the EOD #D1 - still above major support - the 34 EMA on the EOD #D1.
  • All time High (ATH) #D1, was resistance last couple of weeks.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bears force a close a tad below the 5 EMA on EOW #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS reaches the over bought - resistance of the previous weeks is now support #W2.
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls fail to conquer the All time High bearing a Golden Cross - Bears held around Weekly 5 EMA #W1




Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 34 EMA continues as last major support for the Bulls #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Above the 5 EMA on the EOW, #W1 i.e. 6143 Bulls have momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA are crossed bearishly #D1.
  • STS resistance line becomes a strong support on the way down #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls look to make another attempt at the ATH #W1 - Bears look to stay below the 5 EMA on the Medium term charts #W1.





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Engulfing Bear - Week 2 of November 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 11 Nov'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


Bears fight back for control of the Medium Term with a Engulfing action on the Bull show of the previous week #W2.
All Ichimoku indicators still favor Bulls as above.


Bulls unable to keep the their new All Time High (ATH) as Bears fight back.





Looking Forward into the next Week:


All Ichimoku signals show green for the Bulls as of now.

Chikou Span moves towards the Price Line - deflection or cross near #W1.
Tenkan Sen is the nearest support, the Bulls would count on, for the coming week #W2.


Bulls still dominate the Medium Term and aim for another go at the ATH - Bears fight to get below the Tenkan Sen #W2.