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Monday, November 25, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - More 3 inside up gains - Week 4 of November 2013.


S&P 500: Long Term View (or) EOM Chart (or) Month Chart - each candle is 1 month's price action 



S&P 500: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action



S&P 500: Short Term View (or) EOD Chart (or) Day Chart - each candle is 1 day's price action




Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts keeps November green to date - new ATH.
Support & Resistance:
  • The Month Channel Top (blue) gets realigned again as Bulls get on a new trajectory #M1. 
  • 5 EMA on the EOW was the support #W1 this week also.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep above the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1 all of last week.
  • 5 EMA stays above the 13 SMA after a Bullish Deflection #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bullish 'Three Inside Up' on the Long Term #M1 gives Bulls more gains - Bears unable to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1..



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Tops #D1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 for all of last week - shows  momentum for Bulls.
  • Deflection or Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, next week would show the direction going forward #D1. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls use the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, to stay green in November - Bears aim for a bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA  #D1.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull new ATH - Week 4 of November 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 22 Nov'13




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get to new All Time High (ATH) and stay above previous peaks #W2.
Senoku Span A & B starting to converge #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow even as both turn up #W2.


Wrap: Bulls get another ATH.. 



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, and have gained momentum #W2.
Narrowing gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) a small consolation for Bears #W3. 
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow - cross helps Bear cause #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to maintain momentum to stay above previous peaks while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen soon #W2.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Nifty off 13 - Week 4 of November 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 22 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 22 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 22 Nov'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 again as bears claim honors for most of November.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls hold the fall above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'  #D1.
  • 5 EMA on EOW (6114) #W1, was support for half the week, before cracking under Bear Pressure like in the previous week.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bears take it below the 50 SMA on the EOD before bouncing off the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance of the previous weeks is now support #W2.
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls lose control of the Short Term Screen - Bears fail at the critical Weekly 13 SMA #W1.




Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • The 34 EMA on the EOW (5899) is the next support the Bulls would want to remain above - to avoid losing the Medium Term too #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Above the 5 EMA on the EOW, #W1 i.e. 6074, Bulls have momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
  • Bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW (at 5875) #W1, is the next Bear ask. 
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA - crossed bearishly, now look at life below the zero line #D1.
  • STS at the resistance line, a strong support on the way down #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek life above the 13 SMA on the Week chart - Bears look to take the Medium Term Screen & a weekly close below 5875 #W1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Play - Week 4 of November 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 22 Nov'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


Bears take advantage with a red candle following the Engulfing action on the Bull show of the week before #W2.
Bulls slip below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Chikou Span touches the Price Line  #W1.


Wrap: Bear fight back gets them below the Tenkan Sen.



Looking Forward into the next Week:


Chikou Span moves towards the Price Line - deflection or cross imminent #W1.
Bulls need to get above the Tenkan Sen to get back in the game #W2.


Wrap: Bulls would aim for a deflection of the Chikou Span and Price line for another go at the ATH - Bears look to stay below the Tenkan Sen #W2.