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Monday, December 2, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside up works - Week 1 of December 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts keeps November green - another new ATH.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index gets closer to the Week Channel Top (orange)  #W1. 
  • 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 was the support this week.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep November candle clear of the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
  • 5 EMA stays above the 13 SMA after a Bullish Deflection #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bullish 'Three Inside Up' on the Long Term #M1 gives Bulls solid gains - Bears unable to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1..



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 for all of last week - shows momentum kept by Bulls.
  • Deflection or Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, next week would again show the direction going forward #D1. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 staying in the over bought zone, works for the Bulls #D1


Wrap:
Bulls use the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, to stay green - Bears aim for a bearish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA  #D1.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Shooting for the Stars - Week 1 of December 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 29 Nov'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get to new All Time High (ATH) and shoot for the stars  #W2.
Senoku Span A & B continue converging #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow even as both turn up #W2.


Wrap: Bulls shoot for the Stars and get another ATH.



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, Chikou Span flat  #W1.
Narrowing gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) a small consolation for Bears #W3. 
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow - cross helps Bear cause #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to maintain momentum and stay with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen soon #W2.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Hanging on above the 13 - Week 1 of December 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 29 Nov'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 29 Nov'13




Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 - bears claim honors for November.
  • November's candle close to being a Hanging man. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep Index above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'  #D1.
  • 13 SMA on EOW #W1, was support, 5 EMA also taken by Bulls.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls bounce off the confluence of most of the EMAs that we study on the EOD and also off the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 as done last week.
Indicators:
  • STS resistance of the previous weeks is now exact support #W2.
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls regain control of the Short Term Screen - Bears again fail at the critical Weekly 13 SMA #W1.





Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle's effect, now influences the above.
Support & Resistance:
  • To retain the Short term screen, the confluence of a MAs on the EOD is the support the Bulls would want to stay above #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls some verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Above the 5 EMA on the EOW, #W1, Bulls have momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA, now attempting a Bullish cross and deflection off the zero line #D1.
  • STS is at the resistance line, which succeeds as a strong support for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to keep clear of the 13 SMA on the Week chart - Bear hope hangs on the Hanging Man candle's effect #M1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Bounce - Week 1 of December 2013.


BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 29 Nov'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku, can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


Bulls retake the Tenkan Sen with a green week #W2.
Chikou Span deflects off  the Price Line  #W1.


Wrap: With a Chikou Span deflection, Bulls get above the Tenkan Sen.



Looking Forward into the next Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull move up #W1.
Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.


Wrap: Bulls with the deflection of the Chikou Span off the Price line could make another go at the ATH - Bears look to get below the Tenkan Sen #W2.