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Monday, December 9, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Nose in - Week 2 of December 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 06 Dec'13


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 06 Dec'13


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 06 Dec'13





Learning from the Past Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - last week bears ensure no new ATH.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index falls out of Day Channel #D1, Pulls back from Support to Channel Bottom. 
  • MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1 was the support last week.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep December candle clear of the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
  • 5 EMA slides below the 13 SMA after Bears strike with a Cross #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bears nose into the Bull Party and get the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1..



Looking forward into the next Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 MVWAP  and 200 SMA on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Keeping below the 5 EMA on the EOD #D1 for all of last week - shows momentum loss for Bulls.
  • Failure of the Bears to restrict the Bull Pull back (Study here, here or elsewhere) below the EOD Channel (pink) #D1 - could result in a Bullish re-cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA and these two give us direction going forward. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the oversold, works for the Bears #D1


Wrap:
Bulls want to use the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, to stay green - Bears hope to take the Index below the 34 MVWAP  #D1.





The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Shooting Star Hang - Week 2 of December 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 06 Dec'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls have a red week after 'shooting star' week #W2.
Senoku Span A & B flatten #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow even as both flatten #W2.


Wrap: Bulls' shoot for the Stars 'Hangs' below the ATH.



Looking Forward into the next Week:

Bulls keep index above Kijun Sen, Chikou Span flat  #W1.
Narrowing gap between the Senkou Span A&B (Thicker Kumo = stronger resistance) a consolation for Bears #W3. 
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen narrow - cross helps Bear cause #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to regain momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen slips below the Kijun Sen soon #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Clear above 13 - Week 2 of December 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 06 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 06 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 06 Dec'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:

  • Bulls fail to capitalize on the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 - bears claim honors for November.
  • November's candle close to being a Hanging man. 
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep Index above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace of the 'Jan'12 low to All time high'  #D1.
  • Bulls gain above the 13 SMA on EOW #W1, 5 EMA was Support.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls find momentum above the 5 EMA (Weekly) #W1 to progress towards the ATH.
Indicators:
  • STS bounces off resistance line #W2 which was a strong support for Bulls as expected.  
  • Divergence (study) of the TRD to Price from last ATH (Oct 2011) to this ATH (Oct 2013) apparent #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all Screens - Bears fail at the Daily 5 EMA #D1 and Weekly 5 EMA #W1.





Looking Forward into the next Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart still active #M1. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle's effect, now influences the above.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA and Channel Mid line are Good Supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can give the Bulls verve to attempt a new ATH.
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOW (6160), #W1, Bulls retain momentum to attempt another attack on the ATH #W1.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA move up, after a Bullish cross and deflection off the zero line #D1.
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to keep clear of the 13 SMA EOW and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bear hope hangs on the Hanging Man candle's effect #M1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Another ATH shot - Week 2 of December 2013.




BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 06 Dec'13



Learning from the Past Week: (click here for previous post)


After the retake of the Tenkan Sen, Bulls head to the ATH with another green week #W2.
Senkou Span gap widens making for a thicker Kumo  #W3.


Wrap: Bulls stay above the Tenkan Sen an head for the ATH.



Looking Forward into the next Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull move up #W1.
Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.


Wrap: Bulls with the deflection of the Chikou Span off the Price line should make another go at the ATH - Bears look to get below the Tenkan Sen #W2.