TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, December 16, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Cash in - Week 3 of December 2013.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 13 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 13 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 13 Dec'13


Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November green - December honors are with Bears.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index fell out of Day Channel, Pulled back from Support to last week's Channel Bottom, and then crashed below the MVWAP 34 #D1. 
  • MVWAP 34 on the EOD #D1 was the support Bears cracked last week to take the Short Term screen.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bulls keep December candle clear of the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
  • EOD 5 EMA ends below the 13 SMA despite Bull attempts intra-week #D1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, manages to stay in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the over-bought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bears Cash in after spoiling the Bull Party - Bulls keep nose above 13 SMA on the EOW #W1..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls, while the 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Bulls need to get above the 5 EMA on the EOW (1785) to gain some traction #W1.
  • If a Bullish re-cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, happens this week, along with above would give Bulls direction going forward. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the oversold, works for the Bears #D1


Wrap:
Bulls see life above 1785 and trust the 'Three Inside Up' #M1, helps make December green - Bears look to take the Index below the 13 SMA #W1.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Support - Week 3 of December 2013.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 13 Dec'13


Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls have another red week after the 'shooting star' week hangs #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen opens wide #W2.


Wrap: Bulls dive from ATH to Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span dives towards Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen widens, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to regain momentum and 'Hang' with the stars while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks this week #W2.


CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Repulsion EOW - Week 3 of December 2013.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 13 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 13 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 13 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)



Patterns:

  • Bulls justify the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1 - with a new ATH in December.
  • November's 'Hanging man influence' helps Bears get the Short Term Screen to neutral zone. 
  • Last two candles on the EOW #W1, sets up a 'Three Outside Down'.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls and Bears dominate last week, as our EOW channel top, repulses Bulls precisely #W1 and 34 SMA #D1 is closest support.
  • Bulls gain above the 13 SMA on EOW #W1, 5 EMA held by a whisker.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls find momentum above the 5 EMA (Weekly) #W1 to make a new ATH.
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, which was a strong support for Bulls as expected. 
  • Lower volume for the second half of the week, a plus for the Bulls #D1.


Wrap:
Bulls fighting for the short term screen - Bears again fail at the Weekly 5 EMA #W1.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1, still active after producing a new ATH in December. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle of November, continues to influence the above.
  • Medium Term Three outside Down (Study here, here or elsewhere) triggers, if this week's close is below the last week's close of 6168. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain Good Supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the EOW (6162), #W1, Bulls retain momentum to attempt another attack on the recent ATH #W1.
  • With the index closing above 6196 on Monday, Bulls would avoid starting the week with a Bearish Cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
 Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA poised for a Bearish Cross #D1.
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to keep clear above the 13 SMA (EOW) and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bears look to close the week below the 5 EMA #W1 and trigger a Medium term Three Outside Down.

 


BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - ATH - Week 3 of December 2013.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 13 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)


Bulls and Bears get their Season's Wish List filled last week.
Bulls make a new ATH #W2.
Bears get a close below the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span gap widens making for a thicker Kumo  #W3.



Wrap: Bulls get a new ATH, Bears force a close below the Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to get above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.


Wrap: Bears look to keep it below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH once more.