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Monday, December 30, 2013

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - 3 inside up, 3 green months - Week 1 of January 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 27 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 27 Dec'13



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 27 Dec'13




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts keeps November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index moves up with good momentum above th 5 EMA on the EOD all of last week #D1. 
  • EOW channel top resistance (orange line) helps Bears hold up the rally #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The Month candle stayed above the 5 EMA showing the long term strength of the Bulls #M1.
  • Bulls with the new ATH, end above all the MAs we track across all screens, for the second week running.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator slides below the overbought, after the August Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls keep well above the 5 EMA on the EOD to get another new ATH - Bears hold fort at the EOW channel top #D1..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls.
  • 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
  • Bulls dominate all three screens.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1808) to get a life #W1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1.
  • MACD and its MA meet up for a cross or deflection #D1.


Wrap:
Bears see life below 1808 and trust the EOW channel top #W1 continues to hold the Bulls - Bulls expect to make new highs and keep December's candle green #M1.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH again - Week 1 of January 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 27 Dec'13



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get another new ATH #W2.
Senoku Span A & B widen and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steadies #W2.


Wrap: Bulls rise from Tenkan Sen to another ATH, last week #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Chikou Span thrusts away from Price line #W1.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above support at Tenkan Sen #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and make new ATHs while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Advantage Bulls - Week 1 of January 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 27 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 27 Dec'13



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 27 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls keep the December candle Green in line with the long term 'Three Inside up' #M1.
  • November's 'Hanging man influence' #M1 - again on hold last week.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls stay clear of the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 and inch towards the ATH.
  • Bull momentum high, as index kept above 5 EMA on the EOD #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • Bulls get the advantage as the short term 5 EMA moves above the 13 SMA #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 


Wrap:
Bulls dominate the short term screen - Bears fail at the Daily 5 EMA #D1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:

  • Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1, still active after producing a new ATH in December. 
  • Hanging man (study herehere or elsewhere) candle of November #M1, continues to influence the above.
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain Good Supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Closing December above November's Open (6290) sets up a mild Bullish Engulfing Pattern - making this number, the one, Bulls would want to hold #M1.
 Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • The Nifty Wall for the current series is 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere).


Wrap:

Bulls seek to close December above 6290 and attempt another attack on the ATH - Bears hope to slip below the Wall and avoid being Engulfed  #M1. 




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls edge towards ATH - Week 1 of January 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 27 Dec'13




Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)


Bulls stay clear of the Tenkan Sen and inch up towards the ATH #W2.
Senkou Span gap steadies #W3.


Wrap: Bears on the back foot as the Bulls stay clear above the Tenkan Sen #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to keep above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH once more.