Monday, July 14, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears smell honey - Week 3 of July 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 11 July'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 11 July'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from May'2014, onward - as on 11 July'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Index falls dramatically to make an Engulfing Pattern #W1.
  • White (in our chart Green) Marubozo of last week, chooses reversal and not continuation #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Month Pivot's R1 was the exact resistance #D1 last week.  
  • Index passes through 5 EMA on the EOW #W1 and Wall for July (7494) to hold above the Daily 50 SMA #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • On EOD, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly #D1.  
Indicators:
  • STS Pull Back (study) stays below the resistance (earlier support) line, but is still in the overbought zone #W2. 
  • TRD remains shy, near the 76.4 % Fibonacci retrace #M2.


Wrap:
Bears take over the short term screen, while Bulls hold just above the 50 SMA on the Daily Chart #D1.


Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Engulfing Pattern on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
  • Bearish Engulfing turning into a Three Outside Down (Study links herehere or elsewhere), is the next Bear Hope and Bull Nightmare #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears next want to reach & crack the 13 SMA on the EOW (7292) #W1.
  • The Bulls need to live life above the July Wall (7494, Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) and defend the 50 SMA #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, index is above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator keeping below the 76.4% retrace is good for the Bears #M2.
  • STS getting above resistance (earlier support) line, helps Bull Cause #W2.


Wrap:
Bears look to break the 13 SMA on the EOW next #W1Bulls seek to get back above the July Wall and defend the 50 SMA #D1.