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Monday, January 6, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - New Year Reds - Week 2 of January 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 03 Jan'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 03 Jan'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 03 Jan'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
  • A Bearish Harami is formed by the last two candles on the Medium Term Charts #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index slides well below the 5 EMA on the EOD all of the new year, enough to paint the week red  #D1, #W1. 
  • EOW channel top resistance (orange line) violated, but does hold up the Bulls #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The Month candle stayed above the 5 EMA showing the long term strength of the Bulls #M1.
  • Bulls close above the 5 EMA on the EOW to demonstrate that they ended the week strong #W1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stays in the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator remains below the overbought, after the August'13 Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls start the year on a red note but retain strength - Bears manage to hold fort at the EOW channel top #D1, #W1..



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - still active.
  • Three Inside Down (Study links here, here or elsewhere), can trigger on Medium Term Screen, if this week's close is below 1831 #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 200 SMA and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are Support for the Bulls.
  • 'All Time High' Line and the Channel Top #W1 are resistances.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get below the 5 EMA on the EOW to get a life #W1.
  • Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOD above the 13 SMA to keep their life #D1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 in the overbought zone, works for the Bulls #D1.
  • Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  


Wrap:
Bears trust the EOW channel top #W1 holds the Bulls - Bulls seek to get green back into 2014 candles (Day, Week & Month).



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATH Cross - Week 2 of January 2014.


Our Dow chart gets 'auto awesome', thank you G+  :)

Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 03 Jan'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls cross to another new ATH for the new year #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge a little and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2.


Wrap: Bulls get a New Year ATH, Bears force a red week #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, a concern for Bulls #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen wide, giving the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above current support (Tenkan Sen) #W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep momentum and make new ATHs while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen cracks #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Wall Fall - Week 2 of January 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 03 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 03 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 03 Jan'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
  • The last two candles on the EOW #W1 form a Bearish Engulfing Pattern - This week closing below 6211 produces a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls stay clear of the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 despite the bear onslaught.
  • Bulls also use the 34 EMA, 50 SMA & Channel mid line on the EOD as support and were resisted near the previous ATH 6343 (Current ATH being 6415) #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • EOD - 50 SMA and 200 SMA stay crossed bullishly in a Golden Cross #D1. 
  • The short term 5 EMA poised to move below the 13 SMA #D1.  
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line #W2, a strong support for Bulls. 
  • Bears crack this Month's Wall (6280) is style, with a 100+ point fall to start 2014 with a red week.   

Wrap:
Bulls retain short term screen by a thread, despite Wall fall - Bears fail at the Weekly 13 SMA yet again #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link here, here or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is on, if this week closes below 6211. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 34 EMA, 50 SMA and Channel Mid line remain weekly supports #D1.
  • Week channel top #W1 remains a pretty decent resistance for Bulls.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can continue to give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Keeping above the 5 EMA on the Month Chart, bulls display long term strength.
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • Bulls need to get above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link here, here or elsewhere) to get back into the game.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to clear the Wall and target the ATH - Bears hope to keep below the Wall and ensure a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down'. 



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Bounce - Week 2 of January 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 03 Jan'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls resisted near the ATH sent back to the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Tenkan Sen resists the Bears #W2.
Senkou Span gap steady #W3.


Wrap: Bears fail at the Tenkan Sen but get a red week #W2.



Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to keep above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Thicker Kumo means future support for Bulls if the Index is above the Kumo then #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the ATH.