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Monday, January 27, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Red 2014, Bears Move - Week 5 of January 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 24 Jan'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 24 Jan'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 24 Jan'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bullish '3 Inside up' #M1, on the Long Term Charts kept November and December candles green, with a new ATH.
  • January 2014 candle remains red #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears move Index below the 5 EMA on weekly chart, even as the MVWAP and Channel Bottom fail to support the Bulls #W1.
  • Bulls stay above the 5 EMA on the Monthly chart #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the EOD the 5 EMA bearishly crosses below the 13 SMA mid-week #D1.
  • On the EOW the 5 EMA poised to - deflect Bullishly or Cross Bearishly - the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, slips from the overbought #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls saw red all year and now lose strength - Bears take the Short Term and close to taking the Medium Term too..   



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Long Term Chart's Bullish 'Three Inside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #M1 - seems spent.
  • Medium Term Chart shows a Bearish 'Three Inside Down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) with the last three candles #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 and EOD channel Bottom on the Short Term Chart are now resistance for the Bulls.
  • Medium Term MVWAP 34 #W1, is the next Support.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to stay below the 5 EMA on the EOW (1817) to stay in the game #W1.
  • Bulls need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOW above the 13 SMA (i.e. keep above 1793) to get some life back #W1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4 heading to the over sold, works for the Bears #D1.
  • Oscillator popping into the over-bought this month, can set the Bulls free #M1.  


Wrap:
Bears seek to keep their momentum with a stay below 1817 - Bulls want life back and the Index above 1793.



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Cracks - Week 5 of January 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 24 Jan'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 


Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get hammered after holding off above the Tenkan Sen the previous week #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some more and head up #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2.
Chikou Span eyes the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls lose plot and crash through the Tenkan Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, remains a concern for Bulls #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steadies, widening gap would give the Bulls some relief #W2.
Critical for Bulls to stay above Kijun Sen and retake Tenkan Sen #W2.
Chikou Span deflection or cross of the Price line to be watched #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep above the Kijun Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen is strong resistance for the Index #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Wall to ATH - Week 5 of January 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 24 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 24 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 24 Jan'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • November and December candles will set up a Long Term 'Three Outside up' if January closes above December Close #M1.
  • The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern followed by two green candles.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears held near Channel mid line Support on the EOD just below the Wall (6280), while Bulls were again resisted last week around the Nov 2013 ATH (i.e. 6343) for the third time this year.
  • Index builds on last week's gains, staying above the 13 SMA (EOD) for most of the week but dives (Friday) to close below the 13 SMA (EOD) and Monthly 'Pivot Point' (Learn herehere or elsewhere) again #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • Medium Term Screen's 5 EMA was the support for Bulls last week #W1. 
  • The short term 5 EMA close to Bullish deflection or Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #D1.  
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line marked, a strong support for Bulls #W1. 
  • MACD and its MA poised to meet for cross or deflection #D2.

Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all screens - Bears keep index below the Wall (6280) #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Bullish 'Three Outside up' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible - to be watched for.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6191), is again support for the Index #W1.
  • Around the Nov 2013 ATH (i.e. 6343), Bulls see strong resistance.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve to attempt new ATHs.
  • Getting above the 13 SMA on the EOD is the immediate Bull task, while getting the 5 EMA below the 13 SMA ,is the Bear ask  #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.
  • Bulls need to cross and sustain above the Wall for the current series i.e. 6280 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) to avoid a red series.


Wrap:
Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the ATH - Bears plan to stay below the Wall and break 6191. 





BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Elusive ATHs - Week 5 of January 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 24 Jan'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 

Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls hold above the Tenkan Sen and notch up another aborted ATH attempt #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - expands #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also increases #W2

Wrap: Bulls stay above the Tenkan Sen but fail near the ATH #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span keeping above the Price Line critical for Bull moves #W1.
Bulls need to stay above the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Expansion of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B indicative of Bull strength #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears look get the Index below the Tenkan Sen #W2. Bulls eye the elusive ATH