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Monday, February 3, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Red 2014, Bulls hold a line - Week 1 of February 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 31 Jan'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 31 Jan'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'2013, onward - as on 31 Jan'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Week Chart's Bearish 'Three Inside Down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) gives the Bears some more honey #W1. 
  • Last 4 candles on the Month Screen show a near 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' going Bear as the January 2014 candle closes red #M1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close just above the 5 EMA on the Monthly chart #M1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Week Chart, the 5 EMA makes a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, meanders in the 50s #W2.
  • Month Chart Oscillator below the overbought, as it has been after the August'13 Close #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls see red month and year but consolidate last week - Bears take the Short Term and nearly take the Medium Term too..   



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The near 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' going Bear (Study link here, here or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1. 
  • Week Chart's Bearish 'Three Inside Down'  (Study link herehere or elsewhere) is active #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 on the Short Term Chart is resistance for the Bulls, while the Month Chart's 5 EMA (1771) is the next Support.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to keep the 5 EMA on the EOW below the 13 SMA (i.e index below 1826) to stay in the game #W1
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, deliberating near the over sold, works for the Bulls #D2.  


Wrap:
Bulls desperately want to hold above 1771 - Bears want to keep the Week Chart's 5 EMA below the 13 SMA. 



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Support - Week 1 of February 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 31 Jan'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls go red again, after slipping below the Tenkan Sen last week #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some more #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen reduces #W2.
Chikou Span kisses the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls get support at the Kijun Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, remains a concern for Bulls #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also converge, divergence would give the Bulls some relief #W2.
Bulls staying above Kijun Sen gives hope of a retake of the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Chikou Span deflection or cross of the Price line to be watched #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to keep above the Kijun Sen while Bears pray the Tenkan Sen is strong resistance for the Index #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls find another Wall - Week 1 of February 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 31 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 31 Jan'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 31 Jan'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • December & January candles form 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
  • The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern and its effect.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears staying below the January Wall 6280, for most of the month - used our mark the Weekly 13 SMA (6191) as precise resistance to make a 160 point fall. Support was near the 76.4 % Fibo retrace marked on the EOW screen #W1.
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA close to Bullish deflection or Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • STS stays above resistance line marked, a strong support for Bulls #W2. 



Wrap:
Bears take the short term screen - Bulls close the week above the new Wall (6076).




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 is possible, if February closes below January.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6187), is now resistance for the Index #W1, while the Wall for the current series 6076 (Wall = Approx Hawala rate, study link herehere or elsewhere) is the current support.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) 50 & 200 SMA - can even now give the Bulls verve, to attempt new ATHs.
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls #W2.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to stay above the Wall and target the 13 SMA #W1 - Bears next need to get below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Fall - Week 1 of February 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 31 Jan'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls slip below the Tenkan Sen and stay below it all week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - steady #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen flat #W2
Chikou Span see price line beyond a deep chasm #W1.  

Wrap: Bulls slip below the Tenkan Sen #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span needs to cover a lot of ground to meet the Price Line in the next few weeks #W1.
Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Flattening of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B indicative of consolidation before a Big move  #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears eye the Kumo  #W2. Bulls trust the Chikou Span stays above the Price line #W1.