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Monday, February 10, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls hammer a green week - Week 2 of February 2014.




S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 07 Feb'14




S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 07 Feb'14




S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 07 Feb'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:

  • Bulls pull off a Hammer Candle at the bottom of the dive to produce a green week #W1. 
  • Month Screen shows a 'Deliberation Candle Pattern - 3 green candles' followed by the Jan and Feb'14 candles #M1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close just above the 5 EMA (1771) on the Monthly chart #M1 while the MVWAP 34 acts as support #W1..
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Week Chart, the 5 EMA remains in a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA, the same MAs on the Day chart are poised for Bearish Deflection or Bullish Cross #W1. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, meanders in the 50s #W2 while the Stochastic looks up  #D1


Wrap:
Bulls after consolidating the previous week, hammer a green week - Bears lose Short Term advantage but hold the Medium Term outlook at neutral..   



Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1. 
  • Week Chart's Hammer (Study link herehere or elsewhere) is now active #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 on the Short Term Chart remains resistance for the Bulls, while the Month Chart's 5 EMA (1771) is again the Support.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to keep the index below the 13 SMA (1811) #W1 to stay in the game - Bulls want the 5 EMA above the 13 SMA on the day chart #D1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, edging above the over sold, works for the Bulls #D2.  


Wrap:
Bears desperately want to hold the index below the 13 SMA #W1 (1811) - Bulls see fresh life above the MVWAP 34 #D1..



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen holds again - Week 2 of February 2014.


Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 07 Feb'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls get a green week after coming up from below to close above the Kijun Sen #W2.
Senoku Span A & B converge some more #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen reduces further #W2.
Chikou Span kisses and bounces off the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls again get support at the Kijun Sen #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:

Convergence of Senoku Span A & B, and also Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, remains a concern for Bulls #W3.
Index hanging on above Kijun Sen two weeks in a row, gives the Bull hope of a retake of the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Chikou Span deflection of the Price line favors Bulls #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to get above the Tenkan Sen - Bears anticipate a bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen soon #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls back against the Wall - Week 2 of February 2014.





Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 07 Feb'14





Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 07 Feb'14




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 07 Feb'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • December & January candles formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
  • The EOW #W1 shows a Medium Term 'Three Outside Down' Candle Pattern and the resultant gains for the Bears.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index breaks below the February Wall (i.e. 6076 - our support) early in the week - Bulls however defend 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' ) #W1 to close the week just below the Wall.
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA makes a Bearish Cross of the 13 SMA #W1. 
Indicators:
  • STS falls to touch the Support line for Bulls #W2. 



Wrap:
Bears dominate the short and medium term charts during the week - Bulls regain the short term but fail to make it over the wall (6076) by week close.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 fails to materialize, if February closes above January.   
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Medium Term Chart, #W1 is active. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6188), is again resistance for the Index, while 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' ) #W1 and 200 SMA #D1 are the current supports.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA giving way as the two  SMAs start to converge #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS keeping above its support line, works for the Bulls as does the MACD Histogram ticking up #W2.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to get above the Wall and target the 13 SMA #W1 - Bears next need to get below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Last Major Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Chikou Span Slide - Week 2 of February 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 07 Feb'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls stay below the Tenkan Sen  #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - converge #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen contractst #W2
Chikou Span slides away from Price zone - avoiding a bearish cross #W1.  


Wrap: Index stays between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span needs to cover a lot of ground to meet the Price Line in the next few weeks - thus postponing a bearish cross #W1.
Bears need to stay below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Convergence of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B favors Bears  #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears eye the Kumo  #W2. Bulls trust the Chikou Span stays above the Price line #W1.