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Monday, February 24, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - At ATH Again - Week 4 of February 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 21 Feb'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 21 Feb'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Oct'2013, onward - as on 21 Feb'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:

  • Bulls use the Hammer Candle at the bottom of the last dive to reach the ATH #W1. 
  • Month Screen shows a 'Deliberation Candle Pattern - 3 green candles' followed by the Jan and Feb'14 candles #M1,
  • Bearish Harami formed by the last two candles on the Weekly #W1,
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls keep it above the 13 SMA on the Week charts #W1 and hit out at the ATH intra-week. #D1.
Moving Averages:  
  • On the Week Chart #W1 and Day Charts #D1, the 5 EMA stays bullishly crossed above the 13 SMA,  
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, continues to meander in the 50s #W2 while the Stochastic keeps it to the over-bought  #D1


Wrap:
Bulls at the ATH again - Bears defend the ATH.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The 'Deliberation Candle Pattern' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) needs consideration #M1. 
  • Weekly Bearish Harami's possible progression to a Three Inside Down worth a study (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #W1. 
Support & Resistance:
  • MVWAP 34 on the Short Term Chart is now support for the Bulls, while the All Time High (ATH) #M1 is resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • Bears need to get the index below the 13 SMA (1816) #W1 to get back into the game - Bulls look for a new ATH #M1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying in the over-bought, works for the Bulls #D2.  


Wrap:
Bears target the 13 SMA #W1 (1816) - Bulls seek momentum to make a new ATH.




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Flatten to deceive ? - Week 4 of February 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 21 Feb'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls after taking off above the Tenkan Sen consolidate #W2.

Senoku Span A & B flat #W3.
Gap between the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen also flatten #W2.


Wrap: Index Consolidates #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Senoku Span A & B flattening as also Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen continues to indicate indecision #W3.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward $W2.


Wrap: Bulls look to stay above the Tenkan Sen - Bears want a bearish cross of the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.


CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - High Wave effect - Week 4 of February 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 21 Feb'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 21 Feb'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 21 Feb'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • December & January candles formed a 'Bearish Engulfing' #M1.
  • The 'High Wave' candle keeps Bull and Bear guessing most of the week - Bulls make a sharp up move at week close #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index  closes above the February Wall (6076), Bears however defend the weekly 13 SMA #W1. Index is now stuck at the Month Pivot #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • The medium term 5 EMA remains in a Bearish Cross with the 13 SMA #W1, even as in the short term these averages cross bullishly #D1. 
Indicators:
  • STS slips below the Support line shown, which now becomes resistance line for Bulls #W2. 



Wrap:
Bulls gain the advantage closing above the Wall - Bears stay in the game defending the higher end of our range - 13 SMA Weekly #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bearish 'Three Outside down' (Study link herehere or elsewhere) on the Long Term Chart #M1 fails to materialize, if February closes above January's close.   
  • The 'High Wave' Candle on the Week Chart (Study link herehere or elsewhere) #W1 is active.. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA Weekly (6190), is immediate resistance for the week, while 5975 (76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Dec'2011 Low to ATH' ) #W1 and 200 SMA #D1 remain the current supports.
  • Index needs to get unstuck from the Month Pivot #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady even as index floats between them #D1.
  • A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the Week Charts gives the Bulls reason to celebrate at a Index reading of 6353 #W3.
Indicators:
  • STS keeping below its support line, works for the Bears #W1, while the MACD crossing above the zero line, helps the Bulls #D2.



Wrap:
Bulls seek to celebrate at 6353 #W1 - Bears want life below the '76.4% Fibonacci Retrace of the Dec'2011 Low to ATH' (5975) #W1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Pipped - Week 4 of February 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 21 Feb'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from last Week: (click here for previous post)

Bulls peep above the Tenkan Sen  #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - flatten #W3.
Distance between Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2
Chikou Span glides up in man's zone - avoiding a bearish cross #W1.  


Wrap: Index peeps above the Tenkan Sen #W2.





Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span needs to climb some more to avoid a bearish cross with the Price Line in the next few weeks #W1.
Bears need to get below the Tenkan Sen to remain in the game #W2.
Flattening of Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen and the Senkou Span A & B implies consolidation  #W2 #W3.


Wrap: Bears eye the Kumo  #W2. Bulls happy that the Chikou Span is above the Price line #W1.