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Monday, April 28, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Shooting Stars and Marubozus - Week 1 of May 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 25 Apr'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 25 Apr'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 25 Apr'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls hold fort, with the continuation pattern studied last week 'Opening White Marubozu' on the EOW #W1 - continuing the consolidation
  • Shooting Star forms again after two Marubozus #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index slips below the 5 EMA on the short term #D1. The MVWAP 34 #D1 provides support.
Moving Averages:  
  • Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1 on the short term screen helps the bulls. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, continues to meander in the 50s #W2.
  • TSI seen hanging around its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.


Wrap:
Index closes the week below the 5 EMA on the Daily charts - Bears fail to close below 1862 and rule the short term charts.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Last week's 'Shooting Star' (Study link herehere or elsewherecandle is active  #W1. 
  • The Continuation Pattern i.e Opening White Marubozu is also active (Study link herehere or elsewhere)
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the 13 SMA #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1835.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, slipping back into the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls consider another ATH - Bears shoot to get below the MVWAP 34 on the Weekly charts #W1. 




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Hold - Week 1 of May 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 25 Apr'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull - Bear stand-off  continues around the ATH #W2.

Price Line bounces off the Tenkan Sen intra-week #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running bearishly into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index takes support at Tenkan Sen - broad ranging continues all 2014  #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward before Price line gets too close to the Kumo $W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to break above this range #W2, Bears shoot to get below the Tenkan Sen #W2.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Tenuous 3 Outside up - Week 1 of May 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 25 Apr'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 25 Apr'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 25 Apr'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Tenuous Three outside up #W1 continues to be active, as week closes a mere 7 points above 11th April Close - 6776. 
  • Evening star possibility on the Monthly charts remain #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The 5 EMA on the short term charts #D1 cracked by Bears. 
Moving Averages:
  • Index sees the short term 5 EMA and 13 SMA deflect Bullishly last week #D1. 
Indicators:
  • MACD and its MA remain crossed bearishly #D2, 
  • TRD hanging around the 61.8% retrace drawn #M2.


Wrap:
Bull hold of short term screen tenuous - Bears eye a evening star possibility by month end #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish Three outside up ( Study link herehere or elsewhere) active - Bears happy if Index  slips below 6776 (11th April Close) #W1.
  • Bears see a possibility of an Evening Star formation #M1 (Study link herehere or elsewhere)  
Support & Resistance:
  • The support, if 6776 fails, is the Weekly 5 EMA i.e. 6717.
  • EOD Channel top is now resistance for the Bulls #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator staying above the 61.8% retrace boosts bulls #M2.
  • MACD staying below its MA favors Bears #D2.


Wrap:
Bears hope for a Evening Star starting May #M1Bulls look to keep the weekly Three outside up alive #W1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bull Pause - Week 1 of May 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 25 Apr'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take another break near All Time Highs #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflection clearly visible and gap widening #W2



Wrap: Bulls pause near ATHs for the second week in a row
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will avoid the price-line, for a few months #W1.
Current deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, gave the bulls gains #W2.
Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen gap can continue to widen, even if index fluctuates 600 (Sensex) or 200 (Nifty) odd points over the next few weeks #W2. 



Wrap: Bears like the index below the
Tenkan sen - Bulls seek new highs beyond the deflection #W2.