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Monday, May 12, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - ATH Try - Week 3 of May 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 09 May'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 09 May'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 09 May'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls get shy near ATH produce a Doji week #W1.
  • Combination of last two weekly candles makes a Harami Cross #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index faces resistance near the ATH even as the 13 SMA #W1, was near support.
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1 - on the short term screen - touch for last 3 days. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stagnates in the 60s #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls dominate all 3 screens - Bears defend the current ATH.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Doji Candle Pattern (Study link herehere or elsewhereis active  #W1. 
  • Harami Cross (Study link herehere or elsewhere) seen as a Continuation Pattern is also active and can produce a Three Inside Down (Study link herehere or elsewhere) if this week closes below 1878.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the 13 SMA (1859) #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1835 for this, the third consecutive week.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD touching for last three days, can produce Bullish Deflection or Bearish Cross #D1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, straying back into the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls need to try for another ATH - Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1. 




The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds yet again - Week 3 of May 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 09 May'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull end week at  All time closing High #W2.

Price Line bounces off the Tenkan Sen intra-week once again #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running bearishly into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index takes support at Tenkan Sen - new closing high (weekly)  #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATH #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to break and close above this range #W2, Bears hope to get below the Tenkan Sen after 3 aborted attempts in 3 consecutive weeks #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls revisit ATH - Week 3 of May 2014.




Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 09 May'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 09 May'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 09 May'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bulls pull off an 'Engulfing' week to revisit the ATH #W1. 
  • Evening star on the Monthly charts in position to form #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • The ATH was resistance for the Bulls last week while the new Day Channel Bottom was support #D1.  
Moving Averages:
  • Index above all the Moving averages that we track
Indicators:
  • STS bounces neatly off its Support line to launch Bulls to the ATH last Friday #W2. 
  • TRD hanging around the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


Wrap:
All screens with the Bulls - Bears defend ATH (All Time High) and retain 'Evening Star' possibility #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bears can still trigger a 'Long Term'  Evening Star formation, if May candle closes below the range 6704-6712 #M1 (Study links herehere or elsewhere)  
  • Bulls look forward to a 'Medium Term', Three Outside up, if this week closes above last week's close (Study links here, here or elsewhere)
Support & Resistance:
  • Index support that the Bears look to break is 6841 i.e. the May Wall (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) followed by the Evening Star Trigger as above : 6704-6712 .
  • Day Channel top (around 7070) is now resistance for the Bulls #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator getting below the 61.8% retrace boosts bears #M2.
  • STS staying above its support line and in the overbought good for Bulls #W2.


Wrap:
Bears see Evening Star formation below 6704-6712 #M1Bulls look to keep above support line on the STS and make 7070 #W2.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls move ATH - Week 3 of May 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 09 May'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls bounce off Tenkan Sen to launch into a new ATH last week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap widens #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also widens as anticipated #W2



Wrap: Bulls after pausing near ATHs for 2 weeks, move to a new ATH
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will meet the price-line, in a few months #W1.
Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, gave the bulls more gains #W2.
Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen gap can continue to widen, even if the Sensex fluctuates 300-500 odd points over the next few weeks as seen  #W2. 



Wrap: Bears keen to get the index below the 
Tenkan sen - Bulls after new ATHs #W2.