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Monday, May 19, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - ATH - Week 4 of May 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 16 May'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 16 May'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Dec'13, onward - as on 16 May'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bulls try and get a new ATH - after the Doji we have a High wave last week #W1.
  • Combination of last three weekly candles makes a Three Inside Down #W1 but by a margin too close for Bear Comfort.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index fails to hold gains - the 13 SMA #W1, was near support.
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA #D1 - on the short term screen - deflected Bullishly last week.. 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13, stagnates in the 60s #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls dominate all 3 screens - Bears defend the current ATH (All time High).




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • The High wave Candle Pattern (Study link herehere or elsewhereis active  #W1. 
  • Harami Cross (Study link herehere or elsewhere) seen as a Continuation Pattern produces a Three Inside Down (Study link herehere or elsewhere) by a slender margin - needs watching.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls see support at the 13 SMA (1862) #W1, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW #W1 would cross bearishly at a Index reading below 1841.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD #W1 would cross Bearishly below 1884 or deflect Bullishly above this on Monday.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, moving back into the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls want to cross and stay above current ATH - Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1. 



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen 4X - Week 4 of May 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 16 May'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls try and manage another ATH #W2.

Price Line bounces off the Tenkan Sen intra-week for the 4th week #W2.
At present height, the Chikou span seen running bearishly into the Price Line #W1.


Wrap: Index takes support at Tenkan Sen - new ATH  #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATH #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to break and close above this range #W2, Bears hope to get below the Tenkan Sen after 4 aborted attempts in 4 consecutive weeks #W2.

 

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls make break-out ATH - Week 4 of May 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 09 May'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 09 May'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2013, onward - as on 09 May'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Bulls use the 'Medium Term', Three Outside up to break out #W1. 
  • Evening star on the Monthly charts in position to form #M1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Our mark 7070 - the old Day Channel top - was support for the Bulls last week.  
Moving Averages:
  • Index above all the Moving averages that we track
Indicators:
  • STS after bouncing off its Support line to break-out, is back at the line #W2. 
  • TRD clears the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


Wrap:
All screens with the Bulls - Bears retrieve half of Bull gains and retain 'Evening Star' possibility #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bears can still trigger a 'Long Term'  Evening Star formation, if May candle closes below the range 6704-6712 #M1 (Study links herehere or elsewhere)  
  • Bulls look to the 'Medium Term', Three Outside up (Study links herehere or elsewhere) for more gains.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index support that the Bears look to break is 6841 i.e. the May Wall (Wall = Approx Hawala rate - study link herehere or elsewhere) followed by the Evening Star Trigger as above : 6704-6712 .
  • ATH (7564) is current resistance #M1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator staying above the 61.8% retrace soothes the Bulls #M2.
  • STS slipping below its support line and the overbought helps Bears #W2.


Wrap:


Bears see Evening Star formation below 6704-6712 #M1Bulls look to keep above support line on the STS and make new ATHs #W2.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Move ! - Week 4 of May 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 09 May'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls bounce off Tenkan Sen to create a breakout ATH #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap drastically narrows #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen close as in a defletion #W2



Wrap: Bulls create a breakout High but give up half of the gains
 #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will meet the price-line, in a few months #W1.
Post the second deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen,  bulls good to prevent a bearish cross for another 1000 point fluctuation #W2.
  #W2. 
Senkou Span A & B - gap contraction a concern for Bulls #W3.


Wrap: Bears hope is to get the index below the 
Tenkan sen - Bulls on a High! #W2.