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Monday, June 23, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Top Stop 2 - Week 4 of June 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 20 June'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 20 June'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 20 June'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Strong Resistance holds index at Weekly Channel Top even as Bulls make a new ATH #W1.
  • Bears fail to follow through on the Bearish Harami on the EOW #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index keeps above the 5 EMA on the Day charts #D1 and above the 5 EMA on the Weekly #W1. 
  • Weekly Channel Top was resistance #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, deflect to give Bulls a new ATH #D1 
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 near the over bought #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all Screens - Bears defend the EOW channel top #W1.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Weekly Channel Top is resistance for the index (Study links herehere or elsewhere
Support & Resistance:
  • 5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1935 is support for the week, while the Week Channel Top #W1 remains resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA currently deflected Bullishly - needs to stay that way for Bulls to break channel top #D1.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls want to crack the Weekly Channel Resistance #W1- Bear future lies below the 13 SMA on the Weekly charts #W1. 



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls Back - Week 4 of June 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 20 June'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support near Tenkan Sen to get back to highs #W2.

Bears get closer to Tenkan Sen at week's low #W2.
Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen and  Senoku Span A-B widens #W2, #W3.


Wrap: Bull back to highs taking support near Tenkan Sen  #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls have hopes of a new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs #W2, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen #W2.




CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears move it sideways - Week 4 of June 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 20 June'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 20 June'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 20 June'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • 'Medium Term', Three Outside up #W1 gains falter. 
Support & Resistance:
  • 13 SMA on the EOD #D1, cracked by bears.  
  • R1 of the Monthly Pivot was the resistance #D1.
Moving Averages:
  • On EOD, the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly #D1.  
Indicators:
  • STS Pull Back (study) falters at the resistance (earlier support) line, but is still in the overbought zone #W2. 
  • TRD nears the 76.4 % Fibonacci retrace #M2.


Wrap:
Bulls lose control of short term screen - Bears get second red week #W1.




Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bulls had one of the best 'Medium Term', Three Outside up (Study links herehere or elsewhere) for gains.
Support & Resistance:
  • Support that bears want to reach & crack is now the 5 EMA on the EOW (7411) #W1.
  • The R1 of the Month Pivot 7650 #D1 remains the resistance that Bulls want to live above. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on and steady, even as index is clear above these SMAs #D1.
Indicators:
  • TRD Indicator keeping below the 76.4% retrace is good for the Bears #M2.
  • STS getting above resistance (earlier support) line, helps Bull Cause #W2.


Wrap:
Bears look to reach and crack the 5 EMA on the EOWBulls seek to get and stay above the 5 EMA on the EOD #W1.




BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds again - Week 4 of June 2014.


BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 20 June'14


Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support just above Tenkan Sen for the 18th straight week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap steady #W2


Wrap: Bulls find support near Tenkan Sen 
#W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Bear hope is that the Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will meet the price-line, in a few months #W1.
Bulls want to keep the price line clear of the Tenkan Sen and make new ATHs #W2. 


Wrap: Bears hope is to get the index below the 
Tenkan sen, Bull focus is to get back to ATHs #W2.