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Monday, July 21, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bull 1975 - Week 4 of July 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 18 July'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 18 July'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 18 July'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bearish Harami seen last week fails to evolve into a Three inside Down #W1.
  • Last two candles on the EOW form a Bullish Harami #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Once again the ATH (All Time High) was resistance zone and the 5 EMA (weekly) was support zone #W1.
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, after deflecting Bullishly last week once again touch on the EOD #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 stays in the over bought #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all Screens - Bears fail to close below the weekly 5 EMA  #W1.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Harami (Bullish) on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
  • Bullish Harami Pattern turning into a Three Inside Up (Study links herehere or elsewhere), is the next Bull Hope #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • 5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1966 is support for the week, while the ATH  is resistance.
Moving Averages:
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised to cross bearishly on the EOD #D1 - if the next Day candle Closes below 1975.
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls seek to go above the last ATH i.e. 1986 - Bears want to hold below 1975 and crack 1966 on the downside #W1. 


The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bull High - Week 4 of July 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 18 July'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take off from where they left off last week to make a new ATH #W2.

Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen steady #W2.
Gap between  Senoku Span A-B steady #W3.


Wrap: Bulls use the take off from Tenkan Sen to make a new ATH #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls continue to hunt for new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs above the Tenkan Sen, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen after 13+ weeks #W2.





CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Deuce - Week 4 of July 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 18 July'14



Nifty 50: Medium Term View (or) EOW Chart (or) Week Chart - each candle is 1 week's price action 



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 18 July'14




Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Last week's Engulfing Pattern does not mutate into a Three Outside Down #W1.
  • Last two candles on the Medium Term Chart make a Bullish Harami #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index holding above the Daily 50 SMA, sails through the Wall (7494) to get the 5 EMA and 13 SMA to touch #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • EOD VOLEMA dips, while price line rises, last few days #D2.
Indicators:
  • MACD shows clear divergence with Price #D2. 

Wrap:
Bulls hold all screens, while Bears produce a stalemate by preventing critical averages from crossing #D1.





Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami Pattern on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
  • Bullish Harami Pattern turning into a Three Inside Up (Study links herehere or elsewhere), is the next Bull Hope #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears will want to get back below the 5 EMA on the EOW (7567) #W1, while Bulls look to get above R1 on the Month Pivot #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's rate of climb is decelerating #D1.
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bullishly above 7626 (EOD for the coming Monday) -  else index sees a bearish Deflection #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD divergence to Price look good for Bears, while the MACD crossing above its MA helps Bull cause #D2.


Wrap:
Bears look to break the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1Bulls seek to get above R1 on the month pivot and make new ATHs #D1.


BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bear Hold - Week 4 of July 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18  Month's Data - as on 18 July'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bull pull back fails to take the Tenkan Sen last week #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap flares up #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also up #W2


Wrap: Bears succeed in keep index below Tenkan Sen 
#W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a few months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bulls want to stay above recent lows and get back above the Tenkan Sen #W2. 


Wrap: Bears look to keep index below the 
Tenkan sen, Bull focus is to stay above recent lows and make it above the Tenkan Sen #W2.