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Monday, July 28, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Doji - Week 5 of July 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 25 July'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 25 July'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 25 July'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami Pattern fails to turn into a Three Inside Up - missing the mark by a narrow 6 point margin #W1.
  • Last candle on the weekly chart is a Doji #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index holds below the 1975 mark early in the week, Bulls take support on the Weekly 5 EMA #W1 and clear this mark to make a new ATH, Bears bring the index back to the mark by Friday - making a Doji. 
Moving Averages:  
  • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA, are bullishly crossed on the EOD #D1.
Indicators:
  • RSI 13 stays in the over bought #W2.
  • TSI continues holding above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

Wrap:
Bulls retain control of all Screens and make a new ATH - Bears force index back down to make a Doji week #W1.




Looking forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Doji on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
  • Three Inside Up (Study links herehere or elsewhere), is not active on the medium term chart #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • EOD channel Bottom is the support while the current ATH #D1 is resistance for the week.
Moving Averages:
  • 5 EMA on the EOW #W1 at a Index reading of 1971 and 1942 the 13 SMA (weekly) are levels the Bulls would want to defend. 
Indicators:
  • Stochastic 34 3 4, staying back in the over-bought zone, works for the Bulls #D2. 


Wrap:
Bulls seek to go above the last ATH i.e. 1991 - Bears want to break the EOD channel bottom #D1. 



The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - YoYo 8 - Week 5 of July 2014.



Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 25 July'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls take support near the Tenkan Senm Bears get a red week making it a 8 week YoYo of green and red #W2.

Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen increases #W2.
Gap between  Senoku Span A-B also moves up #W3.


Wrap: Bulls use the Tenkan Sen as support #W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls continue to hunt for new ATHs #W2.
Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
Bulls wary of the Chikou span bearishly crossing the Price line #W1.


Wrap: Bulls look to make new ATHs above the Tenkan Sen, Bears want life below the Tenkan Sen after 8 YoYo weeks #W2.



CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls on Pasture - Week 5 of July 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 25 July'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 25 July'14




Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 25 July'14





Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Last week's Bullish Harami Pattern turns into a Three Inside Up by a hair thin margin - however the Bulls get a new ATH  #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls get their grass by reaching the monthly pivot's R1 and making a new ATH as studied, The 5 EMA on the EOD provides support all week #D1.
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD crossed bullishly #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD shows clear divergence with Price for the 3rd consecutive wave, MACD moves above its MA #D2. 

Wrap:
Bulls control all screens and even graze briefly in new Pastures, while Bears defend the EOD Channel Top #D1.





Looking Forward into this Week:

 

Patterns:
  • Bullish Three Inside Up, formed by a slender 10 point margin (Study links herehere or elsewhere), is active #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears will want to get back below the 5 EMA on the EOW (7641) #W1, while Bulls look to be above R1 on the Month Pivot #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's rate of climb is decelerating #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD divergence to Price looks good for Bears, while the MACD staying above its MA helps Bull cause #D2.


Wrap:
Bears look to defend the Day Channel Top #D1 and slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1Bulls seek to be above R1 on the July pivot and make new ATHs #D1.



BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Fold - Week 5 of July 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 25 July'14



Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls defending the recent lows manage to edge above the blue Tenkan Sen line #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies up #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steadies #W2


Wrap: Bulls retake the Tenkan Sen, Bears defend recent Highs 
#W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a few months to meet the price-line #W1.
Bears want to defend the recent Highs and get the index below the Tenkan Sen again #W2. 


Wrap: Bears look to keep below recent highs and get the index below the 
Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to stay above the Tenkan Sen and reach the ATH #W2.