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Monday, August 11, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Touch - Week 2 of August 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 08 Aug'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 08 Aug'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 08 Aug'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Bullish Harami forms on the Weekly Charts #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index within the current EOD channel - new declining channel seen #D1.
  • Index stays below the weekly 13 SMA #W1, tests the 5 EMA (1911) on the Monthly Screen #M1, and closes above this mark and the 5 EMA on the EOD.
Moving Averages:  
    • The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, 'Touch' - to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS 34 3 4, slips into the over sold #D2.
    • TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Just when the Bears were getting control of the medium term screen, Bulls come close to retaking the short term screen - Medium and Short Term Screen therefore in neutral zone.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • Bullish Harami on the Medium Term Screen is now active (Study links herehere or elsewhere).
    • Bulls seek to make the above a Three Inside Up (Study Links here, here or elsewhere) #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Current EOD channel (declining) Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports.
    • The deflection point for the Medium Term 5 EMA & 13 SMA (1957) #W1, is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.
    Moving Averages:
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will stay on Bullish deflection course, if Index closes above 1957, this week #W1
    Indicators:
    • TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls seek deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1 continuing, by triggering a Three inside up and closing above 1957.
    Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (1911) after May 2012 #M1. 





    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Save - Week 2 of August 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 08 Aug'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    After Index dives below the Tenkan Sen, Kijun Sen Holds up the Bulls #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen decreases further #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B increases #W3.
    Chikou Span deflects off the Price line neatly #W1.


    Wrap: Kijun Sen arrests the Index fall and saves the Bulls #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears target the Kijun Sen again #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Chikou span deflecting off the Price line, augers well for Bulls #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls want life above the Tenkan Sen following the Chikou Span Deflection, Bears want to close this week below the Kijun Sen #W2.




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bear wave below the wall - Week 2 of August 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 08 Aug'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 08 Aug'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 08 Aug'14





    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bears keep index below the August Wall. and the July Candle's High Wave effect, adds to Bear joy #M1. 
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get support at the 13 SMA on the EOW as studied #W1
    • Bears take it just below the Daily 50 SMA #D1, after neatly defending the August Pivot 7667 #M1
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bearishly early in the week to give Bears dominance of the Index #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD histogram ticks below zero - without any divergence yet #D2. 
    • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

    Wrap:
    Bears retain control of the short term screen after index keeps well below the August Wall 7721 (Study), Bulls take off from Day Channel Bottom to close above the Weekly 13 SMA #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • July candle's High Wave effect (Study links herehere or elsewhere) is on #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears face the 13 SMA on the EOW (7548) as the next Index support to break #W1.
    • Index  faces resistance at the Month Pivot 7667 #M1 and August Wall (7721). 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW cross bearishly, if index closes below 7393 this week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD Histogram diverging positively to Price will work for the Bulls #D2.
    • STS slipping below the overbought, augers well for the Bears #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to defend the Day Channel Bottom #D1 and get above the August Pivot 7667 #M1.
    Bears look to keep below the August Wall 7721 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.






    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Back up - Week 2 of August 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 08 Aug'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears keep it below the Tenkan Sen again, even as Bulls defend recent lows #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steadies up #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steadies up#W2


    Wrap: Bears keep index below Tenkan Sen again 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
    Thickening of the Kumo, favors the Bull Future #W3. 
    Tenkan Sen soars - giving Bulls a longer journey to dominance #W2.


    Wrap: Bears look to 
    keep the index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to get above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.