TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, August 18, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Touch 'n go - Week 3 of August 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Aug'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Aug'14



Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 14 Aug'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Three Inside Up fails to form on the Weekly Charts #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index pops out of last week's EOD channel - new channel seen #D1.
  • Index closes exactly at the 13 SMA (1955), just above the 5 EMA (1950) but fails to ensure a Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOW (1957) last week #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • The weekly 5 EMA and 13 SMA, continue to stay in 'Touch' - to cross bearishly or deflect bullishly #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
    • TSI under pressure. to continue holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls retake the Short Term Screen, Bears however keep Medium Term Screen in the neutral zone.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • Advantage Bears for keeping the Three Inside Up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere)  on the EOW, from forming #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • EOD channel Bottom and the monthly 5 EMA (1911) are the supports.
    • The deflection point for the Medium Term 5 EMA & 13 SMA (1966) #W1, is resistance to beat, for the Bulls.
    Moving Averages:
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, will stay on Bullish deflection course, if Index closes above 1966, this week #W1
    Indicators:
    • TSI holding above the Fibonacci level 76.4%, works for the Bulls #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls seek deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA #W1 continuing, by closing above 1966.
    Bears would want to see the first monthly close below the 5 EMA (1911) after May 2012 #M1. 




    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Save 2 - Week 3 of August 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 15 Aug'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Kijun Sen saves the Bulls for the second week running #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen decreases further #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B increases #W3.


    Wrap: Kijun Sen arrests the Index fall and saves the Bulls again #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping below the Tenkan Sen - Bears target the Kijun Sen again #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Chikou span deflecting off the Price line, augers well for Bulls #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls want life above the Tenkan Sen following the Chikou Span Deflection, Bears want to close this week below the Kijun Sen #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls slip above the wall - Week 3 of August 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 14 Aug'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 14 Aug'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 14 Aug'14





    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Bulls slip Index above the August Wall. July Candle's High Wave effect, gives the Bulls some joy #M1. 
    • Last two candles on the Weekly chart form a 'Above the Stomach' Pattern #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls defending the Day Channel Bottom #D1. close above the 5 EMA on the EOW #W1
    • Bears fail to defend the August Pivot 7667 and give up the Wall 7721 #M1
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD cross bullishly mid-week to give Bulls dominance of all screens #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA touch for a Bullish Cross - reflecting the recent Bull moves #D2. 
    • STS below its resistance line - but remains in the over bought #W1.

    Wrap:
    Bears lose control of the short term screen after index slips above the August Wall 7721 (Study), Bears defend recent Highs #W1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:



    Patterns:
    • July candle's High Wave effect (Study links herehere or elsewhere) is on #W1.
    • The 'Above the Stomach' Pattern (Study links herehere or elsewhere) near the Highs, warrant a careful look #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bears seek to get below the confluence of the 5 EMA on the EOW (7669) & Month Pivot (7667) #M1 - the current Index support #W1.
    • Index  faces resistance at the last ATH (7841). 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - however the MA's have initiated converging #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS slipping below the overbought, augers well for the Bears #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to defend the Month Pivot #M1 and get above the ATH (7841) #M1.
    Bears look to get below the August Wall 7721 and break the EOD channel bottom #D1.




    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bulls move up - Week 3 of August 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 12 Month's Data - as on 14 Aug'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls move up from recent lows and cross the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap dips #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also dips #W2


    Wrap: Bulls climb above Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    The Chikou Span, keeping current altitude, will need a couple of months to meet the price-line #W1.
    Bears look to defend recent Highs #W2.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap narrowing favors the Bears #W2.


    Wrap: Bears look to get t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen and break recent lows , Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to break the ATH #W2.