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Monday, September 15, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Break - Week 3 of September 2014.


S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 12 Sept'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 12 Sept'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 12 Sept'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Long Term Bullish Engulfing becoming a 3 outside up, still an option by month end - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
  • Evening Star again fails to evolve on the EOW #W1 - Bears still get a red week.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bears crack the EOD channel's bottom line,  Pull back (study) of Price to EOD channel bottom line possible #D1.
  • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly on the EOD #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Bulls close the week exactly on the 5 EMA on the EOW (1986) #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
    • TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Bears almost take the Short Term Screen, Bulls arrest fall at 5 EMA, on the Medium Term screen #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • Pull back (study) of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - to be watched to assess Bull / Bear strength.
    • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - to be watched for until month end #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • EOD channel Bottom #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
    • The 13 SMA on the EOW (1972) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #D1.
    Moving Averages:
    • A Bullish cross of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA, on the EOD is what Bears would want to avoid now #D1.
    Indicators:
    • STS holding in the over bought, works for the Bulls #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls should look to defend the 13 SMA on the EOW and get back to the ATH #D1.
    Bears would try to complete the Pull back and continue with the fall #D1. 



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bears defend Peak 2 - Week 3 of September 2014.


    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 12 Sept'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears defend Peak 2 with a red week #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen flat and narrow #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B flat #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls repulsed at Peak 2 #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Previous Highs are a strong resistance #W1.


    Wrap: Bulls push for a breakout from these levels, Bears continue to dig-in & defend the ATH zone, for the second time #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Throwback Touch - Week 3 of September 2014.


    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 12 Sept'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 12 Sept'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 12 Sept'14




    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Index dances in a High Wave candle pattern last week #W1.
    • Throwback (study) of Price to old EOD channel's top, sees Bulls managing the Throwback with an exact touch of the red Channel Top line #D3.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls make new ATH but slip below the 5 EMA, on the EOD by week end #D1
    • Bears fight back to get a 'red' week candle #W1
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to meet #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA touch - MACD & Volume divergence to Price is huge #D2. 
    • TRD  #M1 faces resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace.

    Wrap:
    Bulls make another new High, Bears use 'Throwback' to slip index below the 5 EMA #D1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • High Wave candle (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) pattern's effect is now active #W1.
    • Throwback (study) of Price to last week's 'EOD channel top' completes with precision. Follow up move awaited #D3.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Support for the index is the 5 EMA, on the EOW (7974) #W1.
    • Index  faces resistance at the ATH (8180) #D1. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to touch (e.g. at 8005 for Monday) #D1. Watch for Bearish Cross or Bullish deflection.
    Indicators:
    • STS slipping below the overbought, will work for the Bears #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bulls want to use the Throwback #D3 to keep above the 5 EMA, on the Week Chart and make new ATHs #W1.
    Bears see the High Wave as a way to defend the current ATH ( 8180) and move below the 8K mark #W1.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bear Visit - Week 3 of September 2014.


    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 12 Sept'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls keep above the Tenkan Sen and make a new ATH, Bears drive index right back #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap even #W2


    Wrap: Bulls fail to hold on to new gains as Bears get back lost ground 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need 3 to 4 months #W1.
    Bulls need to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - converging is good for Bears #W3.


    Wrap: Bears look to get t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep above the Tenkan Sen to make new ATHs #W2.