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Monday, September 22, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Pullback to Channel - Week 4 of September 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 19 Sept'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 19 Sept'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 19 Sept'14



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Long Term Bullish Engulfing becoming a 3 outside up, is an option by month end - see the last 3 Month candles #M1.
  • Pullback of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - happens as studied.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls take support near the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
  • After a new ATH, bulls sent back from the EOD channel bottom #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bullishly on the EOD #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders in the 60s #W2.
    • TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Bears lose ground as Index pulls up to channel bottom #D1.
    Bulls take off from support at 13 SMA (EOW) as studied and make a new ATH #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • Pull back (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) of Price to EOD channel bottom #D1 - to be watched to assess Bull / Bear strength.
    • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts can evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) - to be watched for until month end #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • EOD channel Bottom #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
    • The 13 SMA on the EOW (1976) is the Support Bulls would want to defend #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • A slip below the 5 EMA on the EOW(1995) is what Bulls would want to avoid now #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS holding in the over bought, works for the Bulls #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls should look to defend the 5 EMA on the EOW and make new ATHs #D1.
    Bears would try to complete the Pull back and continue with the fall #D1. 


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Bulls scale up Peak 2 - Week 4 of September 2014.


    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 19 Sept'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls rise above Peak 2 with a green week #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen same - both climb #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B same - both climb #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls scale higher at Peak 2 #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Previous Highs are a strong support #W2.


    Wrap: Bulls push for a higher highs, Bears seek to get below previous Highs #W2.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Throwback Touch 2 - Week 4 of September 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 19 Sept'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 19 Sept'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 19 Sept'14



    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Index makes huge Waves last week as a result of previous High Wave candle pattern #W1.
    • Throwback of Price to old EOD channel's top #D3, sees Index coming back from below to again make an exact touch of the 'red' Channel Top line #D3.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Bulls shoot up from support at the 5 EMA, on the EOW on Tuesday last #D1, after bouncing off from near the September Wall (study) #D1
    • Bears fight back to hold the Bulls near the red channel top #D3.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD meet #D1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD & Volume divergence to Price is huge #D2. 
    • TRD  #M1 faces resistance at the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace.

    Wrap:
    Bulls maneuver a sharp reversal from the September Wall, Bears hold old channel highs #D3.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • High Wave candle (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) pattern's effect is on #W1.
    • Throwback (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) of Price to old 'EOD channel top' - to be studied #D3.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index support that the bears look to crack, continues to be the 5 EMA on the EOW (8023) #W1.
    • Index  faces resistance at the ATH (8180) #D1. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD poised to cross Bullishly, if index closes above 8108 on Monday this week #D1. 
    Indicators:
    • STS slipping below the overbought, will work for the Bears #W1.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to gain more altitude with current maneuver staying above 8108 #W1.
    Bears look to defend the old channel top #D3 and get back below the 5 EMA #W1.



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Bounce - Week 4 of September 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 19 Sept'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls take support near the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap higher #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also higher #W2


    Wrap: Bulls survive a fall with a bounce off the Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    A Bearish Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need 3 odd months #W1.
    Bulls need to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - converging is good for Bears #W3.


    Wrap: Bears seek to again try getting t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep attempting new ATH(All Time Highs) #W2.