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Monday, October 6, 2014

CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Holds - Week 2 of October 2014.



Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 01 Oct'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 01 Oct'14


Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 01 Oct'14



Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


Patterns:
  • Possibility of the Evening Doji Star happening, gets brighter after September's Doji closes 10 points above the August close as studied #M1.
  • 'Inside Day' Pattern forms on the Weekly Chart (or do we call it an 'Inside week?') see last two candles #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls close below the 5 EMA on the EOW as studied, but keep well above the 13 SMA #W1.
  • Bulls again find support near the green day channel bottom #D3 and at the October Wall (study).
Moving Averages: 
  • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD are Bearishly crossed #D1.
Indicators:
  • MACD threatens to dive below the zero line #D2. 

Wrap:
Bulls stay above the October Wall (7912), Bears light the hope of an Evening Doji Star happening #M1.




Looking Forward into this Week:


Patterns:
  • Possibility of the Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) happening is brighter and now depends on this month's close (below 7964) #M1.
  • 'Inside Day' Pattern on the Weekly Chart (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Index support that the bears look to crack, is the 13 SMA on the EOW (7876) #W1.
  • Index  faces resistance at the recent High (8161) #D1. 
Moving Averages: 
  • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
Indicators:
  • STS staying in the overbought, will work for the Bulls #W2.


Wrap :
Keeping above the October Wall and Day Channel Bottom #D1, Bulls are good to continue their run.
Bears have all of October to work for an Evening Doji Star #M1, immediate task is to get the Index below the October Wall (7912).


BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Tenkan Sen Holds - Week 2 of October 2014.



BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 01 Oct'14




Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

Bulls keep it above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - gap lower #W3.
Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen steady #W2


Wrap: Index ranges inside the previous week's candle above the Tenkan Sen 
#W2.




Looking Forward into this Week:


A Bearish Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need time #W1.
Bulls need to hold above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
Senkou Span A & B - converging is good for Bears #W3.


Wrap: Bears seek to again try getting t
he index below the Tenkan Sen, Bull focus is to keep above previous Highs and attempt new ATH(All Time High) #W2.



S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Sandwich Time 2 - Week 2 of October 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 03 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 03 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 03 Oct'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Long Term Bullish Engulfing fails to become a three outside up, see the last 4 Month candles #M1.
  • Stick Sandwich Pattern on the EOW active, Green seen for last two days #W1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls defend the MVWAP 34 on the EOW #W1.
  • Post fall to Channel bottom - Index bounces back #D1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, poised to deflect or cross on the EOW #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders below the 50s #W2.
    • TSI continues holding, above its crucial Fibonacci level #M2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls get back some lost ground after Index bounces off channel bottom #D1.
    Earlier in the week Bears force Index down to the MVWAP 34 (EOW) #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:


    Patterns:

    • Stick Sandwich Pattern (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
    • Bullish Engulfing on long term charts, fails to evolve into a 3 outside up (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #M1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • New EOD channel Top #D1 and the ATH, are resistances.
    • The MVWAP 34 #W1 and the EOD Channel Bottom #D1 are the Supports.
    Moving Averages:
    • The 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW deflect Bullishly above 1959 for this week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS in the over sold, works for the Bears #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to defend the MVWAP 34 on the EOW and get back to the ATHs #W1.
    Bears, after denying the Bulls a '3 outside up' last month #M1, look at closing below 1959. 



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Kijun Sen Holds - Week 2 of October 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 03 Oct'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears force break-down from Peak 2 - Bulls come back to hold old Highs #W2.

    Gap between Tenkan Sen - Kijun Sen same #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B same #W3.
    Kijun Sen Stops the Bears exactly #W1.


    Wrap: Index falls, but stays above Kijun Sen #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Keeping above the Tenkan Sen - Bulls look for new Highs #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, would continue to show direction going forward #W2.
    Previous Peak continues as critical level #W2.


    Wrap: Bears seek to hold lower levels - Bulls look to use the momentum from this bounce to clear previous ATH #W2.