TO READ THIS WEEK's POST CLICK HERE...

Monday, October 20, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Support Hammer - Week 4 of October 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 17 Oct'14



S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 17 Oct'14



S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 17 Oct'14





Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Weekly Candle is a Hammer #W1.
  • Index falls below the Weekly Channel Bottom and closes both above the Monthly Channel Bottom #M1 and our mark of 1883.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls defend the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, and stay above the 13 SMA on the Month Chart #M1.
  • Bears have it good as they crack the 200 SMA, on the EOD and the EOW channel Bottom #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, cross Bearishly on the EOW #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 down to the 40s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls take support near the Long Term Channel bottom #M1 and hold out a Hammer. 
    Bears get below the 200 SMA, and control the Short and Medium Term Screens #W1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Hammer (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
    • Long Term Channel #M1, is support for the Bulls this week and Medium Term Channel Bottom is resistance #W1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • EOW channel Bottom #W1, and the MVWAP 34 (EOW), are resistances.
    • The EOM channel bottom #M1, and the Monthly 13 SMA (1883) #M1, are the Supports.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is above the 13 SMA on the EOM i.e 1883 #M1.
    • 5 EMA for Monday (next trading day), is also 1883 #D1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI looks for support, near the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to hammer a defense at 1883, defending the Monthly Channel Bottom #M1. 
    Bears look to hold below the Weekly Channel Bottom and the MVWAP 34 #W1




    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Touch - Week 4 of October 2014.


    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 17 Oct'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bears force break-down from Peak 2 - Bulls manage to hold above the Kumo #W2.

    Chikou Span and Price Line Touch #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen Touch #W2.
    Gap between  Senoku Span A-B narrows for a Touch #W3.



    Wrap: Index fall continues, into the Kumo - Bulls manage to close above Kumo #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a close inside the Kumo #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span bouncing off the Price line, is the current Bull hope #W1.
    Bearish cross of the Senoku Span A-B is the Bull ask #W3.


    Wrap: Bears seek to close inside the Kumo #W2 - Bulls hope the Chikou Span would bounce off the Price line #W1.




    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bulls Fight - Week 4 of October 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 17 Oct'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 17 Oct'14



    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 17 Oct'14





    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Evening Doji Star happens if index stays below 7964 this month - Bulls fail to sustain above this number most of October #M1.
    • 'Inside Bar' on the weekly chart is followed by 2 High Wave candles #W1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index below the 5 EMA on the EOW after failing to stay above 7912, the October Wall #W1.
    • Bulls keep it well above the 5 EMA on the EOM (7645) and the S2 on the Pivot #M1,
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW touch, after the Bulls fight back to close above  our mark of 7760  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD stays below the zero line #D2.


    Wrap:
    Index again fails at the October Wall (7912) after Bears light the hope of an Evening Doji Star happening #M1. Bulls keep it above the S2 of the Month Pivot #M1.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) happening is brighter and now depends on this month's close (below 7964) #M1.
    • Inside Day' Pattern on the Weekly Chart (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) is active as are the next 2 'High Wave' candle's effect (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) #W1.
    • New Day Channel - less steep - is drawn subsequent to the Price action #D1,
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bulls want to hold, are the S2 on the Monthly Pivot and 7645 #M1.
    • Bears look to keep the Index below the Wall (7912) or even better 7900 #W1. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW will now cross Bearishly below 7900 OR deflect Bullishly above this number #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the S2 of the Month Pivot #M1, and closing above 7900 are high on the Bull agenda for the Week.
    Bears have the rest of October to ensure an Evening Doji Star #M1, immediate task is to keep the Index below the October Wall (7912).



    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Hold - Week 4 of October 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 17 Oct'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls again fail to get index above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap higher #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also higher #W2


    Wrap: Index edges below the previous major High, and keeps below the Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few weeks #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen crossing or deflecting is also a few weeks away by current trends #W2


    Wrap: Bears seek to keep t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen and get to the Kijun Sen, Bulls focus on getting back to the previous Highs  #W2.