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Monday, October 27, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Channel Resistance, Megaphone - Week 5 of October 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 24 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 24 Oct'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 24 Oct'14

 



Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • Last week's Hammer, blows the Index up to the weekly 13 SMA #W1.
  • Index rises from the Day Channel Bottom to near its top - Possible Broadening Top (see Megaphone pattern) in progress on the Day Charts #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls defend the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, and close above the 5 EMA on the Long Term Charts #M1.
  • Bears hold down the Index at the 13 SMA on the EOW #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • 5 EMA and 13 SMA, stay crossed Bearishly on the EOW #W1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 meanders in the 50s #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls take off from the Long Term Channel bottom #M1 with a Hammer. 
    Bears hold down the index at the weekly 13 SMA #W1 and present a Megaphone #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Hammer (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Medium Term screen #W1.
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) forming on the Day Chart needs to be watched #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • EOD channel Top #D1, and the All Time High (ATH) are resistances.
    • The EOM channel bottom #M1, and the Monthly 5 EMA #M1, are Supports.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is currently at the 13 SMA on the EOW i.e 1966 #W1.
    Indicators:
    • TSI slips below the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls look to hammer their way to the All Time High (ATH), with some help from the Broadening Top #D1.
    Bears look to hold below the Day Channel #D1 and the Weekly 13 SMA #W1


    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - Touch & Go - Week 5 of October 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 24 Oct'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls kick off from the Kumo to get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen #W2.

    Bulls also get the Chikou Span bounce #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still in Touch #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap is narrow and steady #W3.



    Wrap: Bulls after a close above Kumo last week get back in the green #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a close inside the Kumo #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span staying above the Price line, is the current Bull ask #W1.
    Bearish cross of the Senoku Span A-B is the Bull ask #W3.


    Wrap: Bears seek to close inside the Kumo #W2 - Bulls hope the Chikou Span would stay above the Price line #W1.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Bears Resist - Week 5 of October 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 24 Oct'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 24 Oct'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 24 Oct'14




    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)


    Patterns:
    • Evening Doji Star happens if index closes below 7964 this month - Bulls finally clear this mark #M1.
    • Index Pullback to previous Day Channel bottom is on #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index soars after clearing 7912, the October Wall, but halts at the Month Pivot #M1.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW deflect, after the Bulls fight back to close well above  our mark of 7900  #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD points up while still below the zero line #D2.


    Wrap:
    Index clears the October Wall (7912) and Bulls dominate all screens, Bears fight to retain hope of an Evening Doji Star happening, by holding the Bulls at the Month Pivot #M1 




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • Possibility of a Long Term Evening Doji Star (Study Links herehere or elsewhere), if month's close is below 7964 #M1.
    • Price Pullback (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) to Old Day Channel bottom to be watched for follow-up action #D1,
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the 5 EMA on the Month Chart #M1 and 7912.
    • Bears look to keep the Index below the Month Pivot or better still, aim for sub 7964 #W1. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are currently back to converging #D1.
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW stay Bullishly deflected above 7912 (this is also the October Wall) OR cross Bearishly below this number #W1.
    Indicators:
    • STS staying in the overbought, works for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the Month Pivot #M1, and making a new ATH are Priority for the Bulls.
    Bears seek to ensure an Evening Doji Star #M1 by closing this week below 7964.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bears Fold - Week 5 of October 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 24 Oct'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls get index above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap steady #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap also steady #W2


    Wrap: Index uses the resistance of the last high and moves above the Tenkan Sen 
    #W2.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few weeks #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen crossing or deflecting is also a few weeks away by current trends #W2


    Wrap: Bears seek to get t
    he index below the Tenkan Sen and get to the Kijun Sen, Bulls focus on getting back to the previous ATHs  #W2.