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Monday, November 24, 2014

S&P 500 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Hanging Man with a Broadening Top Pop !!! - Week 4 of November 2014.



S&P 500 - End of  Month Chart (EOM) - Channel analyzing Data from mid 2009, onward - as on 22 Nov'14


S&P 500 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Channel analyzing Data from Aug'2011 onward - as on 22 Nov'14


S&P 500 - End of  Day Chart (EOD) -  Channel analyzing Data from Jan'14, onward - as on 22 Nov'14




Learning from last Week:  (click here for the previous post)

Patterns:
  • October Candle the Green Hanging Man #M1, produces a Bullish Continuation for now.  
  • Index rises from the Day Channel Bottom to fresh ATH - producing a perfect 'Broadening Top' on the Day Charts, index pops out of the 'top' #D1.
Support & Resistance:
  • Bulls after defending the Month channel bottom on the EOM #M1, get yet another ATH #D1.
  • Bears pushed back to defending the Weekly channel top #D1, #W1.
Moving Averages:  
    • Daily 5 EMA and 13 SMA, mildly deflect Bullishly #D1.
    Indicators:
    • RSI 13 still in the 60s, divergence to price seen #W2.

    Wrap:
    Bulls pop out of the Broadening top on the EOD after keeping above the daily 5 EMA all the way from the Channel bottom i.e. for 26 days. 
    Bears fail to defend the Broadening Top's top and are near the weekly channel top (orange) #D1.




    Looking forward into this Week:

    Patterns:
    • Hanging Man (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) active in the Long Term screen #M1.
    • Broadening Top (Study Links herehere or elsewhere) seen on the Day Chart - follow up to be watched #D1.
    Support & Resistance: 
    • Weekly Channel Top #W1 and current All Time High (ATH) are resistances.
    • The 5 EMA on the daily charts and on weekly charts (2026) are the supports, Bears want to break #W1.
    Moving Averages:
    • The Index is currently above all the MAs that we track.
    Indicators:
    • TSI holds above the 76.4% Fibonacci retrace #M2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls after popping above the 'Broadening Top' on the EOD #D1, look to negotiate the Hanging Man's effect by month end.
    Bears look to defend the Weekly channel top #W1 and crack that elusive 5 EMA on the Day Chart #D1.



    The Dow Jones - Ichimoku Study - ATHs ! - Week 4 of November 2014.



    Dow 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 24 Month's Data - as on 22 Nov'14



    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls after the kick off from the Kumo, get above the Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen and make another ATH #W2.

    Chikou Span deflection off the Price line had strengthened the Bull cause #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen still in Touch and rising together #W2.
    Senoku Span A & B gap is narrow and rising #W3.


    Wrap: Bulls bounce off the Kumo and use the Chikou Span deflection, to make it rain ATHs ! # W2. Bears lose the plot.




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Bears aim for a journey back to the Kumo #W2.
    Bearish Cross or Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen, is now in progress #W2.
    Chikou Span staying above the Price line, is the current Bull ask #W1.
    Bearish cross of the Senoku Span A-B is the Bear hope #W3.


    Wrap: Bears hope to get back to the Kumo #W2 - Bulls see a Bullish Deflection of Tenkan Sen & Kijun Sen next - even if previous Highs are re-tested #W1.



    CNX Nifty 50 - Triple Screen 'Technical Analysis' - Skirmish Line Action - Week 4 of November 2014.



    Nifty 50 - End of Month (EOM) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from 2008 onward - as on 22 Nov'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Week (EOW) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Mid 2011 onward - as on 22 Nov'14


    Nifty 50 - End of  Day  (EOD) Chart - Channel analyzing Data from Feb'2014, onward - as on 22 Nov'14



    Learning from last Week: (click here for the previous post)
    Patterns:
    • November candle  revives possibility of a Long Term Evening (Doji?) Star #M1.
    • Old EOD Channel Line (blue) was the skirmish line for Bulls and Bears, most of last week as studied - Bulls pull ahead by week end #D1
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index yo-yo'd about the old EOD channel top (Blue) and used the Daily 13 SMA as support last week #D1. R1 on the Monthly Pivot #M1, was resistance not reached.
    Moving Averages: 
    • The critical 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOW, stay Bullishly crossed after a mild deflection last week #W1.
    Indicators:
    • MACD and its MA meet up to deflect by week end #D2.


    Wrap:
    Bulls are dominant across all screens, index deflects the 'short term' 13 SMA.
    Bears lose advantage at the skirmish line, but hold below the R1 of the monthly pivot #M1. 




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Patterns:
    • October candle is a Closing White Marubozu (Study Links herehere or elsewhere),  same is now active in the long term, November Candle to be watched for evening star possibility #M1.
    • Old EOD Channel Top (blue) is now the support that the Bulls need to stay above, to be able to carry on to the red channel top #D1.
    Support & Resistance:
    • Index supports that the Bulls want to stay above, are the 5 EMA (8313) on the Week Chart #W1 and above that, the 13 SMA on the EOD #D1.
    • Bears look to get the Index below the old EOD channel top (blue) failing which, hold the R1 of the monthly pivot #M1, by month end. 
    Moving Averages: 
    • Golden Cross (study herehere or elsewhere) of the 50 & 200 SMA is on - the MA's are still converging #D1.
    • Bearish Cross or follow thro' deflection of the 5 EMA and 13 SMA on the EOD needs to be watched #D1. 
    Indicators:
    • STS staying in the overbought, continues to work for the Bulls #W2.


    Wrap :
    Staying above the November Pivot's #M1, and blue EOD channel top, Bulls aim for the red EOD channel resistance #D1.
    Bears seek to remain in the game, by sending the Index below the blue EOD channel top #D1 after defending the R1 of the November pivot #M1.


    BSE Sensex - Ichimoku Study - Bull Top again - Week 4 of November 2014.



    BSE 30 - End of  Week Chart (EOW) - Analyzing 18 Month's Data - as on 22 Nov'14




    Introduction / Primer to Ichimoku can be read at this link (click). 



    Learning from the Earlier Study: (click here for the post)

    Bulls touch yet another ATH above the Tenkan Sen #W2.
    Senkou Span A & B - gap expanding #W3.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen gap constricting again this week #W2


    Wrap: Index uses the resistance of the last high, moves above the Tenkan Sen and makes yet another new ATH 
    #W2




    Looking Forward into this Week:


    Senkou Span 'A & B' diverging, is good for Bulls #W3.
    A Bearish, Chikou Span cross with Price line, at current altitude, will need a few months #W1.
    Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen deflecting is also a few weeks away by current trends #W2


    Wrap: Bears wish to get t
    he index moving towards the Tenkan Sen, Bulls focus on making new ATHs  #W2.